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EMCORE Corporation Message Board

  • mulletman99 mulletman99 Jul 1, 2008 5:20 PM Flag

    tscrutinzer - Cannacord versus Jeffries

    The FACT is, what the Jeffries analysts said is true....when comparing the efficiencies at the cell/receiver level to efficiencies at the system level, you get a reduction due to losses in the inverter, etc. and thus the SYSTEM (the SunRyder) efficiency will be lower than the cell efficiency.

    The Jeffries analyst claimed that ES systems was quoting system level efficiencies while EMKR is quoting cell/receiver efficiencies, and verified this with a call to EMKR.

    So, if you do the conversion, 70MW at a cell efficiency of 38.5% (what EMKR says is its average….) http://www.emcore.com/solar_power/satellite_solar_cells

    , equals EXACTLY 45.5MW at 25%, what is said to be the efficiency of the SunRyder by the Jeffries analyst.

    Here is the math…100% - (25%/38.5%) = 35%, (or 1 – (0.25/0.385) )or the % difference between the system and cell efficiencies. 35% of 70MW equals, that’s right, 45.5MW (70- (70*0.35)).

    The Jeffries analyst is correct here, that the cannacord guy is comparing apples to oranges (the MW of cells that EMKR is selling, versus the MW of systems ES is producing). It doesn’t make sense for EMKR to announce 45.5MW of cells sold, if they are 70MW worth. And it doesn’t make sense for ES Systems to overstate their output and announce 70MW worth of SunRyders, when after the losses, they will only be 25% efficient (45.5MW).

    Even though the Cannacord guy flew to Korea, he misinterpreted the facts, then posted misinterpreted facts.

    The Jeffries guy cleared the air, showing HOW the cannacord guy misinterpreted the facts.

    So, just because he FLEW TO KOREA, doesn’t make his analysis any better!! You can do a shitty analysis from anywhere.

    You are right about 1 thing though tscrut....management SHOULD make it clear that the Jeffries analyst is correct in his rebuttal, and that the assumption of 45.5MW being the SYSTEM output was a correct one.

    Still painfully long, but struggling to stay away from the sell button.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Not at all...you entirely missed my point. Raising guidance means absolutely nothing if they end up missing. They announced 1 contract during the quarter, sold stock for which we don't know why they needed the money etc. The stock is under 5 due to poor managament execution and for no other reason. Better execution and the stock is at 10.00 and the short percentage is 10% instead of over 50%.

    • DEBT=0

    • moose....stop smoking that crack....at least wait util after dinner anyway.


      How can the fundamentals of a company be irrelevant? Especially since its the realization of the guidance of these fundamentals that are the reason why most people hee have invested.....the promise of profitability, and will cause the shorts to cover???

      That was 1 crazy comment.....

    • And all that is irrelevant...talk is cheap.

    • -Emkr's 2nd quarter revenue increased 42% year-over-year and 20% over prior quarter to approximately $56.3 million

      -Emkr's 3rd quarter revenue guidance
      is estimated to increase over 75% year-over-year to $77-80 million

      -Emkr's fiscal 2008 revenue guidance is increased to $280-$295 million

      -Emkr expects net profitability by the September quarter

      -Emkr had an order backlog of approximately $158 million (as of March 31).

      -Emkr has achieved a record 39% Conversion Efficiency at 1000x concentrated illumination.*

      -Emkr has provided IBM with 55 miles of high-performance InfiniBand interconnects that operate at high-speed 20 Gb/s data rates with and extremely low Bit Error rate of 10(-15).

      -Emkr insiders have expressed their confidence in the company's future by their purchase of 250,000 + shares.

      -Emkr will receive $13.1 million on its sale of its WorldWater Preferred Stock Investment (by July 31)

      -Emkr has received two new definitive supply agreements for solar cell receivers worth a total of $29 million with advance deposits to ensure production priority for the customers (July 9)**

      -Emkr is commercializing the award-winning new Inverted Metamorphic Multi-Junction solar cell with the Air Force Research Lab with a solar conversion rate that exceeds 40%.(July 18)

      -Emkr has increased its job list to 21 to help with future growth (July 24).


      *“We believe this technical and operational advancement represents a significant value creation for our customers. Solar cells with 1000x conversion efficiency of 39% will enable CPV system developers to deploy competitive solar power installations with the lowest cost per kw-hr. We are committed to continuing our investment in CPV solar cell technology and production capacity to support our customers ever increasing requirements for performance, cost, and capacity.”- David Danzilio's (Vice President and General Manager of EMCORE’s Photovoltaics Division).

      **"The awards of these purchase orders further strengthen EMCORE's position as the leading supplier in CPV technologies and products, and diversify our growing terrestrial component backlog." -press release of July 9

    • 'The Jeffries guy cleared the air, showing HOW the cannacord guy misinterpreted the facts."

      IN MY OPINION --- there is another more important consideratrion, I believe the Jefferies analyst was OBJECTIVE in his analysis and I BELIEVE THE CANACCORD "ANALYST" WAS AGENDA-DRIVEN in his "analysis." My proof? I can't prove it, but loook at the evidence: A) Canaccord has been a major player with the shorts in EMKR, and B) They timed their erroneous report to come out on THE LAST DAY OF THE QUARTER WHICH COULD ONLY BE HELPFUL FOR THOSE WITH SHORT POSITIONS, AND WHO GET PAID FOR END-OF-QUARTER PERFORMANCE.

      So it's clear to me which one I will believe. Besides Jefferies is an old line well-respected US house.

    • Of course that revenue guidance didn't include any new contracts and the sale of worldwater. 77-80 million this quarter and 100 to 115 next quarter.
      The sept 2008 quarter could easily be a 250% increase from sept 2007. 2009 should be awesome, and 2010, 2011....!!

    • -Emkr's 2nd quarter revenue increased 42% year-over-year and 20% over prior quarter to approximately $56.3 million

      -Emkr's 3rd quarter revenue guidance
      is estimated to increase over 75% year-over-year to $77-80 million

      -Emkr's fiscal 2008 revenue guidance is increased to $280-$295 million

      -Emkr expects net profitability by the September quarter

      -Emkr had an order backlog of approximately $158 million (as of March 31).

      -Emkr has achieved a record 39% Conversion Efficiency at 1000x concentrated illumination.*

      -Emkr has provided IBM with 55 miles of high-performance InfiniBand interconnects that operate at high-speed 20 Gb/s data rates with and extremely low Bit Error rate of 10(-15).

      -Emkr insiders have expressed their confidence in the company's future by their purchase of 250,000 + shares.

      -Emkr will receive $13.1 million on its sale of its WorldWater Preferred Stock Investment (by July 31)

      -Emkr has received two new definitive supply agreements for solar cell receivers worth a total of $29 million with advance deposits to ensure production priority for the customers (July 9)**


      *“We believe this technical and operational advancement represents a significant value creation for our customers. Solar cells with 1000x conversion efficiency of 39% will enable CPV system developers to deploy competitive solar power installations with the lowest cost per kw-hr. We are committed to continuing our investment in CPV solar cell technology and production capacity to support our customers ever increasing requirements for performance, cost, and capacity.”- David Danzilio's (Vice President and General Manager of EMCORE’s Photovoltaics Division).

      **"The awards of these purchase orders further strengthen EMCORE's position as the leading supplier in CPV technologies and products, and diversify our growing terrestrial component backlog." -press release of July 9

    • -Emkr's 2nd quarter revenue increased 42% year-over-year and 20% over prior quarter to approximately $56.3 million

      -Emkr's 3rd quarter revenue guidance
      is estimated to increase over 75% year-over-year to $77-80 million

      -Emkr's fiscal 2008 revenue guidance is increased to $280-$295 million

      -Emkr expects net profitability by the September quarter

      -Emkr had an order backlog of approximately $158 million (as of March 31).

      -Emkr has achieved a record 39% Conversion Efficiency at 1000x concentrated illumination.*

      -Emkr has provided IBM with 55 miles of high-performance InfiniBand interconnects that operate at high-speed 20 Gb/s data rates with and extremely low Bit Error rate of 10(-15).

      -Emkr insiders have expressed their confidence in the company's future by their purchase of 250,000 + shares.

      -Emkr will receive $13.1 million on its sale of its WorldWater Preferred Stock Investment (by July 31)

      -Emkr has received two new definitive supply agreements for solar cell receivers worth a total of $29 million with advance deposits to ensure production priority for the customers (July 9)**


      *“We believe this technical and operational advancement represents a significant value creation for our customers. Solar cells with 1000x conversion efficiency of 39% will enable CPV system developers to deploy competitive solar power installations with the lowest cost per kw-hr. We are committed to continuing our investment in CPV solar cell technology and production capacity to support our customers ever increasing requirements for performance, cost, and capacity.”- David Danzilio's (Vice President and General Manager of EMCORE’s Photovoltaics Division).

      **"The awards of these purchase orders further strengthen EMCORE's position as the leading supplier in CPV technologies and products, and diversify our growing terrestrial component backlog." -press release of July 9

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EMKR
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