When jl (my partner in our private fund) wrote that 12 months ago, his title was obviously tooling...
But the stock is a raving buy NOW. Have a read through this thread to see the gist of why we were shorting on the way up through the $30s before quickly topping out in the low $40s and then collapsing as we called it...
But all of that is a great backdrop for why we are now long and adding. It should be an easy run back to $20, and perhaps a rocket ship up from there if mgmt can deliver on new backlog additions and getting the procedural ramp accelerating along with the 30+ systems done 2H13.
If they can, they will be one of the few med tech companies with good ideas but S execution -- and the stock will be a rare winner in the space vs fails on the likes of HNSN and countless other companies trying to disrupt the status quo.
you all sound like the longs did when it was 41, full of confidence .LOOK WHAT HAPPENED.Over confidence hurt the longs,so take it as a warning. I would much rather been long at this price than short. Dont get too greedy.
look at the date of his post... then realize he began saying that as we shorted the stock in the mid $30s on the way up almost a year ago.
then read the rest of the thread, in fact, go read everything we both wrote here before the first q report and every q thereafter... you'll then understand why this stock is justifiably hammered.
we have no position having covered now... but we hope you guys will run it up into earnings.
My partner and I have been telling you guys $10 was coming since the stock was at $36 and still rising (for a few weeks more)...
And all of the cheerleaders here have continued to dis us everytime we pointed out why things were a lot more Effd up than most of you could imagine.
So here we are at $10... shoes dropping all around -- we may even cover in a little down a bit more. LOL
just to validate my post earlier this afternoon... here is a recap post from last january highlighting our call for a drop to $10 EXACTLY one year ago (August 1 2012) which happened in January of this year as the longtimers painfully know.
But it is not about emotional investing, it IS about allocating capital into great trades andquickly cutting losses when we are wrong. As commented by me earlier today, we are now very long and that is without a hedge offset following the well handled conference call (good progress on that too, LOL).
MAKO is at least a great trade up into the highs teens and maybe $20 through to the next earnings report (call that a 60%+ move for the quarter).... and if they can refill the backlog and continue making solid progress on procedures, the stock will likely be able to make additional progress into year end.
Regardless, the stock is just getting its footing back and a screaming BUY now.
The +/- $2-3 forward 12 months call (made AFTER the December conference call and 2013 guidance) is interesting, especially following all the cheerleaders saying things are all set again.
"The problem here" essay remains the same...
We covered our big short this week and have now closed out the calls written since the last conference call. It's been a rewarding run down from $36, with a few add on layers -- as discussed right here in real time -- between $12 and $18 thanks to you guys who love the company and the stock and just couldn't evaluate an alternate view.
We hope you guys run it back up to the high teens again where it will be another easy short.
We'll also emphasize that it is unlikely the downward slide is over. ISRG, already down 20%+ lately, is likely to get taken apart this year on slowing procedural growth (already flatlining on dvp), slow progress OUS and saturation... and MAKO is already there on all three counts. Additionally, none of the management, cost per machine or cost/benefit issues we have been talking about here for over a year have been fully discounted.
The sub $10 likelihood looms large.