I'm not going to rehash the entire thesis for going short a year ago in the mid $30s (covered as discussed here just below $12 several weeks ago), but based on the low level of system revenues projected for 2013, they will need another big, severely dilutive equity raise to get to breakeven cash flows under the most optimistic of assumptions on out year system placements and disposables and service contracts.
Many here have hoped this was going to be an ISRG-like winner (in our fund we were unhedged long for almost a year before putting on the big short and then selling out the long on the way to the climax top at $42 a couple weeks later), and it is certainly a more legit company than HNSN Medical and well ahead of notable loser mgmt teams and technologies that have failed in the disruptive med device space, but it is as likely to be down $2-3 as it is to be up $2-3 from here in12 months -- leading right up to that next secondary equity raise (at $10 if they are lucky and by then have say 100+ systems in backlog for EU and Asia-Pacific).
Squeezetracker 2/26/13: "...it is as likely to be down $2-3 as it is to be up $2-3 from here in12 months -- leading right up to that next secondary equity raise (at $10 if they are lucky ..."
Glad to see it went to the upside. LOL.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
With qtr end and Ferre's problems last year with managing investors' expectations, MAKO is highly vunerable to short-selling. At times, shorts have been as high as 40% of float - listed as one of the most shorted stocks in the U.S. equity mkt. The cash crunch rumor recently seeded by squeezetracker and jdt115 here in this trail of postings (they seem to be working together to seed the rumor) is a good example of shorties timing their entry with the beginning of the new qtr. At the end of 3Q12, Mako pre-announced an unexpected RIO sales shortfall.
Ferre really needs to turn in a solid qtr to blow all the shorts away.
This is just a guess on your part as the implant business could improve and generate 25 to 30% more units per robot. If this happens they will be on their way to profitability. Add another 40 plus Rio's this year at the same level of implants per month and you have a company. They will not have to raise more money as they will be profitable with staying power. If they start to show an increase in the monthly implant business and keep with their projections of 48 machines this year, we will see the big players such as Stryker, J & J, Zimmer and Biomet look at them more closely. If they can't generate the higher implant sales per machine per month your assessment may be correct. It's still a big guess on your part as you don't know what's going to happen with the new sales strategy they have implemented along with their new VP of sales.
Hey sleazee... I mean squeezee. Sounds like you have institutional money. Probably registered with the SEC ,etc. and also licensed. Be careful of bragging about YOUR SHORT-SALE profits on a VERY public forum like this board. It is recorded and stays recorded FOREVER! As I'm sure you know, talking down a stock to make a profit could get you investigated and open you up for liability. The people who will sue you are the Mako employees who will lose their jobs as a result of the bankruptcy you may help to facilitate. They will sue you because they will have nothing to lose at that stage, and you've provided them documentation of your actions and rumor-mongering on this board.
Your comments are those of an imbecile and ridiculous. The stock is slammed on street awareness of mako's problems, not our analysis of them.
We are not "registered" financial advisors, or "licensed" or publishing investment advice. Your "legal conclusions" scream of your ignorance on these topics. This is a public forum chat board, and as with most of those, most posters comments are uninformed, incomplete, biased and not worth reading. Neither of us has ever suggested bkr is the likely outcome for this company, but if that were our opinion of where things were going based upon analysis, we would NOT have gone to no position here... we'd be really short again. What we are suggesting... same as last year when people here said we were idiots for suggesting a secondary would be done within 12 months to offset cash burn, is that more dilutive equity will be raised unless a sea change happens.
We have shared studied, knowledgeable and entirely reasonable (and oh btw correct) analytical conclusions here several times over the last year regarding this company's sales efforts, cash flow and capital resources. Did my partner or I mention that we have been correct all along? What our comments have NOT been? They have NOT been false rumors (so rampant on these boards), they have NOT been uninformed, and they have NOT been inaccurate. They have also NOT been investment advice. Rather, they have told you our views that first the stock was way overvalued (about a year ago), then that we anticipated it would come down hard, then that it would bounce to the high teens as the disbelievers chased it (another bingo), and then that it would drop, perhaps to as low as below $10 unless things turned around dramatically and or enough committed longs kept chasing it.
We also explained why we though the short trade was over below $12 a couple months ago... and after the last earnings we explained why we see a range of 12 +/- $2 this year unless things get going hard. GL on that
Inane? Ours has been amongst the most articulate and thoughtful posting here for over a year now... and we have been absolutely correct whether the cheerleaders -- and also the dolts including you -- like it or not.
How you doin on that up or down $2 from $12 call f12m?
Remember now, we have no current position. In the mid teens, if it can be chased up there, it'll be a good short again (albeit no where near as much fun as last year). Below $10, perhaps well below that, it may become an intereting spec, right after the secondary coming in late 2013.
The key at this time is utilization... MAKO will likely be profitable when it hits an average of 10/month/Rio ... With the focus on utilization for 2013 including ramping up THA, it is possible that this goal could be hit late in 2013 or certainly in 2014 !!!!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Definitely, it's all about utilization. Previous thesis batted about by the company and analysts was 150 units and utilization of 10. With every bot sold over 150 (currently 156 plus Q1 sales) it gets easier. If they hit 2013 guidance they are over 201-204 bots and a utilization rate of say 8 outdoes 150 x util rate of 10. We are tantalizing close (less than 12 mos) to breakeven and profitability shortly thereafter. Once more realize that by the end of this year, these prices will be long gone. The time to accumulate is now. GLTA =)
Sentiment: Strong Buy