If you think Dell loses when shareholders vote no on the buyout, then you are wrong. He will then offer a lower price 3 years from now. PC business is going sideways and down. Take your sides.
They can sweeten the offer however it would be difficult because they will need a lot more cash which will not entice silver to buy the company. Buyout broke down several years ago between Dell and Silverlake. It can break down again. Good luck all.
They will NOT sweeten the offer before th 45 day go shop is done AND the shareholders hold a vote. Why would they? They have no incentive to do so. If YOU were in their position - what would you do? Heads you win, tails you get to play again. No downside for them to wait it out. Heads...enough shareholders vote "yes" and you get the company for $13.65. Tails...the shareholders vote "no" OR someone else makes a bid, etc., and you get to reassess (w/wo a fee, depending on what exactly happens). Ultimately, they might increase the offer, but there is *NO* reason to do it before the shareholders vote UNLESS someone else makes a qualifying bid before that time - which I believe is highly unlikely (is another PE shop or tech company really going to go hostile against Dell and Silverlake? lol. Not a chance). Unless it becomes 100% clear that the shareholder vote will not go their way...they have no reason to not see if the $13.65 will fly.
Which is why if the stock trades substantially higher than $13.65 ($14+), it's a good short. If the deal closes, you buy back your shorts at $13.65. If the deal doesn't get approved, the odds are the stock will take a hit at least temporarily - especially if upcoming earnings aren't good. It would be a relatively low risk trade.
Most of what you say may be true. However, if someone comes in such as Larry Ellison and makes a bit of $16-$17 then M.Dell has either lost his company or he has to up the bid substantially. He might have been able to buy it initially for $15 . If someone comes in with a good bid he might not be able to raise the money for a $18 bid. M.Dell has put Dell in play AND that is a huge gamble. He has lost control.
If Michael is still running the company in three years then shame on us as shareholders for allowing this to continue. The company needs solid leadership across all fronts and Michael is not doing it. I would venture that Michael wants to take the company private as "the writings on the wall" and he doesn't want to be kicked aside.