I would be interested in hearing from knowledgeable parties of the DELL current three bid situation of what they would project will be Monday's DELL's opening stock price. Thank you.
So, M Dell bid 13.64, Blackstone bid $14.25, and Ichan put up $15. The news says bidding war, so...
Most of this board is WAY shy of right.
The $15 Ichan bid is a new floor, so if we aren't at $15 before the bell, something is off. I saw $15.50 and that sound like a good number at open. The thing is that $15 is the FLOOR, so you could see some really pretty fluctuations today and for a while.
P.S. I'm not that knowledgeable, but have an MBA and MS Fin (which doesn't mean a ton here imo)
@bashford IMHO, Both Dell and BX are going nowhere with this bid @14.25
1) M Dell doesn't get his objective of taking DELL private and it gives an option for shareholders to retain ownership of the company and which would continue to remain "publicly traded on the NASDAQ"
2) A completely private transaction will never take place unless the bid is upped to $17 or so, cos the big guys aka SouthEastern and T Rowe need atleast that much to breakeven
The option that makes the most sense is for Silverlake/Microsoft to meet up with SouthEastern, T Rowe and Icahn , offer about ~30 billion or so (which is a little more than 17$ per share) and be done with the deal. Any bid 17$ would be a blowout bid and Silverlake doesn't get a second shot at this. This is the only way I see all players are happy...even Icahn would be happy and stop his 'nuisance value' at a bid of $17
There is no "15 floor". Ichan is trying to buy Dell with Dell's own assets. Or, he would like dell to borrow money to pay a dividend, and effectively bankrupt the company. His proposals are absurd and no one with authority will take Ichan seriously.
You should try to get your tuition money refunded from the schools which gave you your MBA and MS degrees,.
Hope this helps.
I think it should open close to 15 coz this is what caral I is offering. price should go up from 15 because now MD has to counter it to keep the companey, will he offer again 15.25 to counter Caral I ? I think no. He must offer it least $16 remember this will be his last chance to make offer and keep the companey under his control. He must offer something not easlily taken over by others. so i think fun tomorrow.
I think that either Ichan or Blackstone will bid again at least at the $16 level, and more likely $17, to test Dell's mettle. Dell gets just one final shot to bid or lose his firm, and Microsoft is a known financial backer (can you say deep pockets?).
A bid under $17 is not really worth spending your time worrying about, because it will certainly be beat. The question is will we see those $20+ valuations that we heard of in the early stages?
The market seems to think that M. Dell's old credit limit (somewhere in the $15-$17 neighborhood) is going to increase. He has close to $10 B in MSD and isn't going to need to use half of that to show that he deserves his new line of credit. just enough to show that he is really keeping skin in the game.
Icahn is only offering $15 for 58% of the company. Now who do you think is going to be in that 58% - you retail shareholders, or the institutions? You'll own stock that, say, covers only Dell's consumer business, and will be back around $10.
I think it stays unchanged or goes down. According to the WSJ, neither of the bids tops $15. The typical haircut for an accepted buyout offer - one that won't be topped - is initially 6%, which reflects the uncertainty of financing and regulatory approval. A $15 bid implies a stock price of $14.10.
I'm long April $14 calls, bought, as they say, as a "lottery ticket" for 13 to 19 cents a few weeks back. If it goes up, great, if it stays a little over $14, I'm about even.