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Dell Computer Corporation (DELL) Message Board

  • zimchic1 zimchic1 Mar 8, 1998 1:31 PM Flag

    Try out VectorVest for stock analysis

    target=new >http://www.vectorvest.com


    Click on the free stock analysis icon in the upper left corner.

    This has been excellent at valuing Dell which is amenable to a valuation based on raw numbers. It's a little slow in assimilating new data as it uses things like moving averages
    as part of its analysis.

    It's abhorrent at any stock which is effected by good or bad news. For instance, Compaq is depressed because of uncertainty about DEC, channel stuffing, etc. and the recent preannouncement of a disappointing quarter.

    Likewise, it's horrible at Microsoft as it doesn't understand the virtual monopoly of the Windows O/S.

    It values Dell at $134, remarkably close to my independant analysis of $135 and last quarter it valued Dell at $108 which was exactly in line (eventually) with reality and my own valuation of $110.

    Conversely, it values Microsoft at $54 (now trading at $80) and it values Compaq at $57, now trading at $27. Great tool for some stocks, lousy with others.

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    • The problem with numerically based stock analysis programs is that they do not (and cannot) account for data that is not numerically based.

      Analysis from VectorVest has to be combined with outstanding research, such as that provided by Cowen, for true value.

      • 1 Reply to ladyjane98125
      • I've been watching it with 3 stocks the past two quarters.
        CPQ, MSFT, and DELL. It's been spot on with Dell and way off base for the other two.

        In the absence of extrodinarily extenuating factors (monopolies and huge acquistions in these cases) it works very well. But you are right, it takes your own due diligence to find the stocks it works well with and those it doesn't. I put a lot of time into figuring out what the market will bear at any given time for Dell and VectorVest agreed with me in every case, although I've been coming up with my valuations a few weeks ahead of when it arrives at the same conclusion.

 

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