Hi all - I'm new to this. Been investing for about 10 years, I recently got into FCEL and have, in my opinion, overbought. 75% of my portfolio is in FCEL. I know this wasn't a good idea, but I bought a large stake at 1.60, then again at 1.40, again at 1.30 and so on... Currently I'm at 1.52 average. I'm prepared to keep my position and incrementally add to it over the long term (5+years), wondering if you think this strategy is a good idea or not? Those of you on this forum seem quite knowledgeable so any advice would be appreciated.
P.S. Glad I found this forum, rarely can I find much for news stories, releases or discussion on FCEL on a daily basis.
It's really hard to admit to yourself, but the only way to make money on these kind of stocks is to watch what the hedge funds do and presume what they are going to do.. They drove in down to 0.88 even when FCEL's fortunes were as good at that time as they had ever been.
You must try to train yourself to watch for those counter-intuitive moments (blood in the streets as Warren calls it).
But in answer to your Q, a 1.52 average at this point in FCEL's life is probably actually quite good for a retail investor.
You see, I wasn't smart enough to read the tea leaves at 0.88 either, and have tried to catch falling knives just as you have. You could have done worse.
I have been on here for a couple years and would advise you to start a separate portfolio to buy on lows and sell immediately on jumps! This stock has a lot of those but NEVER hold for $2. I've lost a ton doing that. Sell in the 1.50 range. This stock will go to $50 in the future but for right now the management dilutes when it nears $2 for some reason! jumho
If I were you, I'd would hold where you are and sell a part of your position on the next modest profit (say, price target 1.60-1.65). Don't throw any more good money after bad. 75% of your portfolio in this one company, which has yet to show net profit and is prone to diluting shares, is way too much risk. Go diversify with your gains as soon as possible, and average up on the dips after FCEL becomes profitable (hopefully in 2013). There will still be money to be made.
Just my two cents.
Seriously, the first rule is that anything you read here may be 100% correct, or may be 100% incorrect.
Smart posters will be completely sincere. Morons will be equally sincere.
You need to realize that some of us here have less than honorable motives for our words.
It's your money, and only you can know what level of risk you can tolerate.
Be careful and have fun!
Welcome to FCEL. First off, let me start by saying I no longer hold any FCEL shares. But my story was similar as far as buying too high and averaging down. I bought at $1.82 and was able to average down for almost a year and stopped at a $1.23 cost basis. I sold on the most recent run up and even ended up day trading it a couple of times later. Long story short, it will go back up. You said you are willing to wait, so don't let the day to day fluctuations bother you. I wouldn't add anymore shares unless it gets closer to $1.00. And for those of you that don't think it will go that low again, that's fine. But nobody thought it would go to 0.80 cents last year, and it did. So nobody really knows. $1.5X is not a bad cost basis, as FCEL seems to be working toward being profitable for the first time. Once they work out the kinks in their management, hopefully they will be able to achieve this. So in my opinion, even with your current cost basis, you will see a profit ($2.00+) in time. Just be patient.
Remember, only two prices matter in the stock market. The price you buy at, and the price you sell at.