I own quite a few shares in FCEL, because I am impressed with their Technology. Like most longs, I have been frustrated with the companiy's ongoing struggle trying to obtain profitability. As a retired executive with an engineering / technology background, I understand the importance of operating as a business as opposed to an ongoing technology project. Your technology can always be (an should be) improved, but survival as an ongoing enterprise is dependent on your ability to generate income. This is the issue, as I see it, at FCEL! Again, good luck longs, and my apologies if I have offended anyone with my candid opinion!
Very honest and sincere post. Nobody can be mad at you for that. I share a lot of your views as a long time shareholder. Although, there are others that have been around FCEL for a lot longer and have more reason to be upset. Especially the investors that made their first purchase at a double digit share price.
With that being said, I stand by my views on FCEL. Get a nice core position under .90 cents (or low .90 cents) and hold on to that for a few years. They will be profitable one day. And you will be able to take that core position to the bank. The second part of my FCEL strategy is, buy a trading block. If you can buy under .95 cents and sell over $1.00, you can play that position for quite some time. I definitely wouldn't let go of my core position though. I want to be on board for the REAL ride up when it comes.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I am one of those who first purchased shares in the double-digits and even as high as $16.50/share! Have my cost average (including trading fees) down to $2.73/share and it drops every time I have some money to buy more. I am a small investor without much money (have 4585 shares right now). I am doing what I can to save up and build a portfolio to easily retire on in 30 years. Have a long way to go, but I am very patient.
You probably did offend many longs on this board. For one reason or another, any objective viewpoint is considered bashing. What happened to all the $3-5 price targets by year end. You don't hear much of that talk anymore.
I agree with your post. It is a delicate balancing act between the advancement of the technology and actually being a real business. I have been a shareholder for years and have grown concerned about not just FCEL, but BLDP, CPST, and PLUG. No matter how good the announcements, partnerships, hype, or backlog, it always seems to end with an excuse, and declining stock price. I believe in the technology and am hopeful, but right now, I feel more like a lottery ticket holder than an investor. BLDP diluted right after their great VW announcment and a series of others. Sound fimiliar? Go back to last March and you will see the same theme here.
We are 3 months into the year and if this is such an in demand technology all over the globe how is it possible that we have had zero legitimate business announcements. The most exciting announcement would be the new website. If the next announcement is the issuance of more shares (probably at .80 cents), you can have my 110k shares and I'll offset some nice gains in stocks that earn money for shareholders.
Good luck to longs. It is 50/50 for FCEL.
Let's say you're a retired executive for real (soryy but I don't know you).
Can you argument a little about the issue on profitability?
Can you agree we could be THERE for real (profitability on 4th 2013/ 1st 2014) as for 1st time management did give near term guidelines, when they said +25% in revenues and Ddigits gross profits starting the improvement from this coming quarter?
Really interested, tx
No offense taken, but, actually I am a retired Tech Exec from a Fortune 500 company. I spent several years toward the end of my career 'fixing' underperforming facilities and/or businesses that were no longer making it. also, did a little bit of consulting after retirement. In any case, the issues are pretty much common to any business that is struggling. Simple truths that always apply: 1) Poor management is the only reason businesses fail. 2) Every employee has to understand what the business needs to do. 3) The business is there for only one purpose....to make money. (not to create jobs, or help the community, or improve the environment, or so on). All of these are the result of a successful / profitable business. 4) Any employee who doesn't buy in to the needs of a successful business should be working on a new career opportunity. 5) Ninety + percent of any employee group can and will be successful and productive in a healthy business environment. Roughly 5% will not. (if you currently work in a large group you are very familiar with the 5% that are making your life more difficult. It is weak management that can't address this issue. With these basics, any business can be successful, if focussed on the bottom line. Any management team can be successful if they are willing 'to manage the business' as a profitable ongoing concern. It isn't always easy, but, it can be done. FCEL has the opportunity, if they choose to take advantage of it. I'm long...for now!
Until they show me the double digit margins I'm skeptical. I went from 30k+ shares to 5k because despite increased orders/backlog the losses were piling up. I'm still waiting for them to prove it on the margins.
With that said this last CC was the first time I actually saw them buckle down and give a margin framework, so I'm cautiously optimistic things will improve within a 2 quarter timeline in terms of pps, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this drift to the .80s again before then.
Hell when the Posco 120(?)MW order came in I thought the stock would pop, but shortly after it actually drifted lower than pre-announcement. At this point they need to prove all the talk. More orders mean jack if the margins aren't there.
And your point is? Was the $30m profit?...free cash flow? borrowed? Tied up inventory? Advances against future deliverables? Restricted? .......? Cash in itself is always a good thing but not necessairly always equal. Yes I am actually interested. Thanks!