S&P could backtest to 1075. If it does I will buy EDC on the backtest.
If we do not backtest and continue up, I will buy the breakout at 1105 - 1111
Technicals are still bullish on almost all charts. Because of the exaggerated action on the Euro today, there may be a momentary downtrend to the Euro, causing a momentary uptick on the DXY. IF this occurs, we may backtest to the 1075 area. I personally hope this happens. At 1075, should we make it that low on the backtest, EDC will fall to the 22.72 area which is a blessing . . . being able to buy back those shares of EDC I sold at the 23.30 area.
If we DO move to the 1075 area, many on this board will be loading up on EDZ and thinking the sky is falling. The sky is NOT falling, and without a strong catalyst causing a reverse in the uptrend, the market will continue to grind up. Market behaviour is different for an uptrend, than it is in a downtrend. Elevator down . . . stairs up.
Ron Walker at www.thechartpatterntrader.com, has a great video on these technicals this evening, if you are so inclined. Ed . . cmeg . . . watch that 1075 level and watch for a bounce to the upside at that level . . . IF we even make it that low. A breakout to the upside may happen at any minute. A backtest and bounce up from 1075 will provide a WONDERFUL opportunity to buy in EDC again at lower prices. If you are holding EDC, you should be fine if you can take the pain of a backtest.
I STILL believe this market grinds higher.
But . . . that's just my opinion . . . and I could be wrong.
Should we have the misfortune of breaking below 1075, you may consider abandoning your EDC position. I do not believe that will happen without a bomb, a missle, a war, a terrorist attack . . . etc.
EDZ may be the play to 1075, if we make it that low . . . but I personally will NOT establish an EDZ position, with the possible exception of a quick daytrade. At 1075, I will take a 50% position in EDC, and expect to pay MORE for the second half of that position, once EDC has gained about 3%. It is simply the safe way to play.
I hope we backtest to ALL THE WAY to 1075. I also believe we just may not make it that low, and will be looking for a reversal to the temporary downtick to establish a new EDC position. In either case, EDC is the play for me, unless we break below 1075. EEM is developing higher lows and higher highs . . . I hope you are all seeing that.
Thanks for all the kind comments. I do this to try to help others . . . and have been cussed at and called every name in the book . . . so it is nice when someone appreciates it and comments.
The question "Where does this go?" is a good one. In the immediate future, I am concerned about Obama's speech tonight. The more he hammers on BP, the more problems Europe has. The value of their currency actually relates to the well being of BP. I held, but that may have been a mistake. I may sell half in afterhours for safety.
I am also concerned about the put/call ratio for EEM. Most traders choose this ETF to FAIL.
We are also approaching BOTH the 200dma and 50dma for EEM at 40.30. This is a concern, but the technicals for S&P are more important to the movement of EEM than the technicals for EEM
Where does it go? S&P 1050 = EEM 41.50 = EDC 28.60
All numbers approximate.
I have said 1144 for a potential reversal. Most believe 1150. Ron Walker feels confident on his 1170 figure. I wish I could ask him WHY he believes that. This gives us an EDC target range of 28 - 30.25. The target will NOT be reached without retreats along the way.
And we ALL know this faux rally could end tomorrow, right?
Thanks again . . . I wish you all well regardless of which side of the fence you are on.
I went all in 16000 at 11:16AM ET by doubling at that time. Effective cost for the run just under 22 after a few ins and outs.
Pretty amazing day for the market, huh? Now at 1111. I hope ALL the EDZ players were in EDC. There may be more left for the day, and CERTAINLY more left for the run.
Doc - qustion - Do we still need to be concerned about your call of an 'unusually down day' this week?
I am so far up on my position that I sure don't want to backtrack by 6%.
Good calls today, BTW. 1112 while laughable when you posted early this morning, now seems possible.
I don't know, BA. Maybe Monday was the day for that. We had great gains and watched them disappear. Maybe that was it. Maybe it is still coming. I wish I knew the answer to that question.
1105 is where we reversed yesterday. We need to close well above that to continue up. Otherwise is is two attempts and two failures which could cause a step back. I hope we are poised to close above 1108. We NEEEEED a strong close. 1112 would seal the deal but we're quite a ways away.
I'm back in EDC at the open. Not as good of an entry as Doc, but I was unsure of the direction we'd take this morning.
Doc - question - You were hoping to buy at 1075. We all were. You also stated you'd buy at the breakout. You did neither. You bought in premarket and the low at the open for a great buy in price. WHY did you do that? HOW did you know we were going up? I'm constantly baffled by some of your calls and actions.
EEM is ROCKIN' TODAY! - GLTA
First of all . . . all of my calls are not right. I didn't make a dime yesterday.
Here's why I bought in this morning early:
-S&P lost 16 points in a few hours yesterday. Did other markets react? NO.
-EEM actually gapped up,38.75 to 39.08 when it should have gapped down
-Futures were up, not down.
-Aftermarket yesterday was solid
- And . . . I was thinking like someone manipulating the market to the upside. We opened poised for a possible breakout.
Good call. Good entry. But can we hold above 1100? We're not seeing much selling so far today, and I agree with the possibility of a pump in the final hour, but it could go either way today. There are still traders needing to sell securities to exercise options. Could be selling today, Wednesday or Thursday. CNBC crowd is advising to sell the pops. They always seem to be on the wrong side of the trade. They never got bearish until we were near the bottom. IDIOTS. MORONS. LOL
FTSE dropped a bit at the bell. That was discouraging. i was hoping they'd close at the highs for the day. probably due to BP which is a huge part of their market. BP down another 1.57% today after a crash yesterday.
Kudos on the play, and it falls very much in line with how MArmstrong sees the summer playing out.
Aside from the momentary blips (like yesterday)we should see Euro strengthening and DOW could go as high as 11k+ by end of July. But we must remember....this is a CHARADE, and is temporary madness. Technical madness.
Good analysis Sterling.
Thanks Cmeg. I'm happy with the entry and have intentions of holding to 1044-1070. I think we could see a reversal in that area, but if we continue on up . . . that's fine, too. I would rather see our market, and our country succeed.
I look for a relatively flat day from 11:30 to 2:30 (1101-1103)and a move UP at the close . . . but who the hell knows. I know if I were the one manipulating this market, and I just got through a key level to the upside, I would want to move the S&P as far away as possible from the 1100. 1106-1114 is ambitious, but I bet that's what we see today.
We still could see some additional selling before Friday . . . possibly another day like Monday. We might not be above 1100 for good, but I hope so.
Are you still holding EDZ Cmeg? How about Ed? Ranj? What does it take to get you guys to abandon EDZ?
Looks like you don't get your sub 23 shares Doc but if you think about it, this is safer. Vix dropping, market increasingjust a safer play. You made a good entry today and I hope you will JUST HOLD and work your own plan that is working fine.
I continue to hold and continue to have faith in the Doc EDC run to 1050.