I see $44 as next stop, possibly $46. I don't see $56 until after August-Sept. But obviously, I'm far more bearish than bullish. The new housing starts will be attrocious. The tax credit ran out on contracts signed April 30th and close by June 30th. But remember, the index for new housing starts is counted by the "signed contract" date, not closing. So new housing starts should drop precipitously. Sales of "existing" homes are based on closing dates. Those will drop too, but not until next months numbers are out. IMO of course.
I want to add one thing. The $44 and $46 EDZ number I wrote of is not a good a play as a direct index play. With the dancing around of the indexes, the EDZ erodes and doesn't maintain parity with the drop in the indexes. So the markets may do far worse than EDZ does well, if I'm being clear enough.