the 10 years bills, now yielding 3.06% and also look at the soon to be auctioned today 3 year notes, currently yielding 1.02%
With all due respect to indicators used out there, this is a telling story of a debacle about to come true. Yields are at historic lows and trending lower. Rather than more risk being taken, more money is coming in to the Treasuries by Sovereign Countries, private investment AND our own Govt. This bubble, keeping interest rates so low and going lower wherever possible tells you of the DEFLATIONERY trends emerging. The expectation of inflation NEVER will emerge so long as this trend continues. And, it is as unhealthy as runaway inflation. Maybe moreso. The Feds are under a lot of pressure and are missing the point. And it may be just passing the tipping point with no chance of turning it around soon enough.
So what are you predicting for this week? I read so guy's post on a different message board predicting another flash crash but I think that's a bit exaggerated. I was thinking a steady decline in leui of less than expected earnings. What do you think?
There are 2 stories on the bear side. 1-The technicals indicated the indexes were oversold and ready for a upward correction. That is past history, and the stronger, more reliable longer term indicators 50 DMA crossing the 200 DMA and the head and shoulders are intact and true to form. So, I cannot answer your question regarding this week.....although I am 100% invested to the short side. BUT,most of my position is longer term 6mos ++ out. EDZ is NOT a well suited investment due to the constand erosion and short term, day trading has better suited investment vehicles. I prefer the SPYDers. Tradiung the SPY short and long term. 2-The fundamentals are sickly. The TReasuries are an indication of how sickly. And the UE numbers are far worse than recent statistical analysis indicates. Wages are far worse than recent data indicates. We are on a long road (the MACRO look) to an evening out of worldwide wages. With Asia coming up and US going down. Not catastrophic, but not good, and the markets will eventually refect it.