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ProShares UltraShort Financials Message Board

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  • wsjjswwsjjsw wsjjswwsjjsw Mar 21, 2008 11:05 PM Flag

    the fact's have not changed!

    The foundamentals have not changed. I guess not many people will disagree with that statement.

    For the technical side, the only risk I can see is that Fed will continue its reckless effort to bail out insolvent players with excessive liquidity, at the cost of inflation and prolonged recession. Honestly I am a little scared of this possibility as well.

    One thing that will make me leave skf is the news of massive layoffs of some major banks. They have to change gear to get out of this mess. The fact that layoff news is not out means these banks are still having their hands full dealing with the existing troubles. Therefore for now, I consider longing skf is still a safe play.

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    • The Fed effectively has an unlimited balance sheet, so they can put out almost any brush fire that pops up.

      The banks are down big and the market is discounting any more bad news for the time being.

      SKF is going much lower and all your fundamental investors that don't grasp the "insanity of short-term markets" are going to get hammered.

      Eventually SKF will be back, in my opinion, since I don't believe this is the real bottom, but in the meantime I'm long UYG because the price action tells me that is the right thing to do.

      Investing is like tracking game. You look for the footprints of your target and follow it. Fundamental investing is like saying their should be game in this area without looking for the clues that it is in fact really in the area. When you get to the location and it isn't there you wait until it arrives. It probably will eventually arrive (if your analysis is correct), but it will take a while since the big Wall Street firms will have already picked them off at a different location.

      SKF is going lower based on all the "tracking signs" I'm reading.

      I agree with the fundamental analysis, but my instincts, based on technical analysis say we are in for a huge bear market rally.

      I'll be back in SKF more than likely and definitely at much lower levels. I've got plenty of cushion to see since I'm up over 10% not counting my initial trade at $25.50 which yielded a return over 12%.

      My advice is to not play Wall Street's game of fundamental analysis, but a game you can win. That game is technical analysis to track what they do.

      Eventually it won't work as everyone will be doing it, but in the meantime it is working great.

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