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ProShares UltraShort Financials Message Board

  • bsenright bsenright Apr 3, 2009 10:56 AM Flag

    VIX midday update

    A couple of updates. No major news. To me, jobs data is terrible news. Revisions for Feb and March will be coming as well.

    Gov't is focused on creating more debt and propping up real estate prices, but do we care if we are all out of work???

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    • I must disagree---I agree that it wont make any difference if we're at 100% unemployment, but we're only at 8%. It may go to 12%. The markets have gone higher on these numbers before. The crital factor is the government's intervention in the financial sector. While it may be manipulative it is nonetheless accreitive to the bottom line.

      The trend is clearly higher. We may get another shake out, but too much money is on the side lines and I don't think they want to miss this move.

      Long, but of course I have my stops in place...
      I never assume that I am "right"

      • 1 Reply to xannz83
      • "I agree that it wont make any difference if we're at 100% unemployment, but we're only at 8%. It may go to 12%."

        What would be the default rate on home mortgages, credit cards, autos and household debt if the official unemployment rate reached 12 percent? Have you asked yourself this?

        If this were China, with its absurdly large savings rate, 12 percent unemployment could be tolerated. The same would be true during the Great Depression when there was almost no consumer credit channels - where 25 percent unemployment was reached.

        However, the 40 percent of households in the United States today have a negative net worth even without including mortgage debt. This implies significant secondary economic dislocations which may, in fact, be more far-reaching than the first phase of this crisis.

        You are being taught to discount information that is vital to your investment decisions...if you really think the market is headed higher, now is not the time to dabbling it...take your money and put it in bonds, and wait...

        If the shorts are right, we're all going to lose everything anyway...if they are wrong, let the markets prove it...

    • I love the January restatement, was it 68000+ more to the downside? I remember one year ago they were restating housing starts or sales, I think it was Feb that was off 1.8%, then in March, they declared March was down 1.9% but after they restated Feb really being down 2.8% (or something like that). That's when I really started getting out of the markets, they were playing with the numbers back then. I guess folks are hip to the one month before restatement, so now they go back two and that makes it better?

    • The reason I am so down on the job market and jobs data and the economy is, I had to cut 3 more jobs today. Our company as a whole has cut 5% of our workforce today. and we expect more in May.

      I am so tired of hearing about mustard seeds and a "new bull market". Its bullsheet. The economy is NOT getting better.


      • 4 Replies to bsenright
      • The critical factor not being seriously addressed by politicians and central bankers is stemming job loss. They only care about preserving their precious control on the system and siphoning off as much cream and hidden taxpayer bail out funds as possible. If you look closely at most of the stimulus funds is meant to offset counter party derivative obligations of the big banks that gambled and loss, well not really since they are socializing those losses as much and fast as possible before the system collapses.

        The problem is not lack of credit, public and private, but the inability of getting public funds quickly to directly support employment from collapsing through public works, infrastructure, direct pork or whatever you want to call it. Giving public funds to bankers in "hopes" of loosening credit is absurb, considering who created this mess and where they are taking those funds (hint to cover imaginary infinite derivative losses and what's left squirrel away in offshore accounts).

        The bear market rally will continue until the last short is squeezed and then things get ugly again in the markets. While the general populace is and will continue to get uglier. Look at the unemployment situation in Ireland currently at 11% (more than doubled in 1 year) and projected to go over 14-16% by year end (optimistic). The reason I am bring up Ireland, is the situation in the US and most of the world seems to be tracking what has happened and well documented in Ireland. Even under the most optimistic government pipe dream, unemployment will be accelerating at that same rate from today's 8.5% in the US to around 12-13%. My personal opinion is we will see around 15% by year end if we are lucky.

      • This is madness! we keep bailing out & pumping billions into the lavish execs, ceos n cfo's. Their theory? it($) will trickle down. They will be nice enough to give people loans.
        Washington is continuing to ignore outsourcing & free trade ('cause their global corp. buddies "rake in" higher profit margins, sending our jobs overseas).
        & our borders are still a joke. hhhhmmm...wonder why?
        I've got news for you Washington! people won't be standing in lines buying up those cars & houses!
        We need to get control of our gov't immediately.
        Remove all lobbyists!
        Remove all corporate funding in campaigns.
        let them vote like "we the people"

        I'd bail from this market, nothing is regulated anymore. The SEC can't even enforce a reg- sho proposal. Nobody even knows how many outstanding shares are " really " in your stocks anymore. The SEC is one of the worst depts in the gov't it's overpaid! & completely useless! I doubt that they ever show up to work 50% of the year.

      • agree completely.... how long can they keep us in limbo???

        better to bottom out than trade in mid-air on gossamer....

      • Even perma-bull Robert Reich is negative on the economy today based on the jobs data. 1 out of every 6 u.s. workers are out of full time employment. Yet Mr. Mustard Seed says all is fine. Freaking idiot

    • Agree with srs as my short play took sum scalps today but still gonna play sum more....cuz i think we still got meat on this bone today...MMs look like they want to bleed it down before they try any rally

    • thx, bsen.

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