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ProShares UltraShort Financials Message Board

  • makisw79 makisw79 Apr 18, 2009 10:18 AM Flag

    ** Interesting charts: $VIX

    The VIX measures volatility and fear. What is interesting on its chart, is that before any major decline on the DOW/S&P500, the VIX itself declines sharply for 7 consecutive weeks, in a downward wedge formation.

    Once again, this is simply an observation. But for those hoping for a decline in the market, the VIX dropping like this seems to be a NECESSARY ingredient.

    http://xs138.xs.to/xs138/09166/0417-vix866.jpg

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    • Duh. Observed *negative* correlation: VIX up indicates market down.

    • what is interesting, looking at that chart, is that if you draw the may and aug. low you will get a trendline to around 25...also the nov. low and the end of dec. low is also pointing to around 25...this line is also parallel to the uppertrendline of the vix...

      i know...this board only likes doom and gloom predictions...and the spx is at a very very great resistance now...

      but there's also a chance it will break the 875 barrier...if that happens...it's going to 1000...

      the last time the vix was around 25, the spx was around 1100...so spx 1000 with vix 25 is certainly not out of the question...

      • 2 Replies to rhyzoom
      • Respectfully, are you perhaps mixing volatility measurements with pricing? Wouldn't that be like mixing velocity with location? Something like: the last time our car's speedometer measured 100 mph, we were somewhere near Phoenix? And the speedometer is nearing 100 mph again, so.....

        Not meant rudely or to bash. I just continue to be confused w.r.t. the VIX, and how/why high volatility is only associated with low price levels, and low volatility implies rallies up.

    • Also, the VIX just filled a gap from Sept of last year.

    • interesting... the pattern repeats... seven weeks down, then a hard correction to the upside for three to four weeks. We might see a bottom for the Vix before it starts to jump higher probably wednesday or thursday... i think that this rally has no more legs up, may be one or two more days. So far, besides the manipulated bank earnings due to Aig help, fed, etc... it does not look too promissing...

      Nokia, Boing, Walmart, warning, add Alcoa, GE, huge drop, Chevron warning, Google slow down, Intel fucked up earnings... JNJ mediocre earnings, its getting interesting.

      go SKF, FAZ...

    • nice work....yes, complacency in this run up is being built into this mkt

      most are saying

      WHEW....looks like an all clear.......

      next leg down before April 23rd....

      if you doubt it, check out Martin Armstrong (google past and present forecasts/predictions)...spot on

 
SKF
45.09+0.34(+0.76%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT