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ProShares UltraShort Financials Message Board

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  • robchadwick robchadwick Oct 2, 2009 6:11 AM Flag

    One, Two, Three, Four Punch!

    GS Spooks with jobs forecast + too much data comes out tomorrow.

    I don't know that I'd count on everything being a miss..

    The market priced in possible misses on jobs data today.. If it's worse than forecast but better than GS & the other data looks OK, I'd guess the market reverses most of yesterdays loss.

    Remember last month GS said 250,000 jobs lost & actual was 216,000.

    My bet is that numbers won't be god awful across the board & once the data is out of the way the market recovers at least 2/3rds of Thursdays losses, all by Monday.. If Pepsi, Costco & Monsanto earnings look good, S&P 1080-1100 by Tuesday..

    Who knows!

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    • "My bet is that numbers won't be god awful across the board"

      You loss - pay up!

      • 1 Reply to mizesaw
      • Bulls failed today (Oct 2, 2009)
        ... to keep market green.

        The huge volume suggests there was unbelievable push to end the week green.

        Next week will be another try by the bulls.
        Quite possible to hit DOW 10K into earnings.

        * If earnings are good by the blue chips - a steady market decline will begin that will last months (DOW 7K). [This is likely]

        * If earnings are not good - an abrupt decline is in the cards. (DOW 8K in 4 weeks)

        Q3 earnings are widely expected to be "better than expected".
        - The banks made good on trading alone backed by unlimited and unaccountable funds.
        - Automakers ka-chinged on clunkers.
        - Airlines made good on cost cutting (mostly fuel and reduced flights)
        - Housing gobbled $8K incentive (Nov 30 deadline)
        - Stronger companies started M&A

        Q4 - another story. Incentives dry up. Layoffs increase. Banks will begin shorting.

        Hang in there ...

50.62+0.49(+0.98%)Oct 6 4:00 PMEDT