My negative 18 ESV figure was a typo. It should have been 19.7%. I apologize for that and corrected it.
As for the 20%, this is the figure I used for the average growth over the next 10 years. I don't expect the glut of rigs to beat Noble down for the next decade. With rising oil prices the supply will meet the demand. The stock will definitely be cyclical with ups and downs along the way. I based this 20% off of analysts 5 year growth estimates which were not unreasonable based on how well Noble has performed over the past decade (I know it doesn't guarantee future growth, but would certainly be doubting if Nobles past growth was less than 20%).