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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

  • ripestocks ripestocks Apr 4, 2010 3:33 PM Flag

    Why Noble will make me money

    I wish I bought Noble when it was below $40. I still think it is a great buy and is severely undervalued. See my full analsysis on Noble and why I bought it here:

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    • A couple of comments:

      Your growth figures are problematic. You show NE at a plus 21 and ESV at a negative 18. That makes little sense to me.

      Your refer to a rig "glut" coming and then calmly predict 20% compounded growth 10 years into the future. Probably can't have both of those.

      • 1 Reply to petroglyph56
      • Thanks for the comments.

        My negative 18 ESV figure was a typo. It should have been 19.7%. I apologize for that and corrected it.

        As for the 20%, this is the figure I used for the average growth over the next 10 years. I don't expect the glut of rigs to beat Noble down for the next decade. With rising oil prices the supply will meet the demand. The stock will definitely be cyclical with ups and downs along the way. I based this 20% off of analysts 5 year growth estimates which were not unreasonable based on how well Noble has performed over the past decade (I know it doesn't guarantee future growth, but would certainly be doubting if Nobles past growth was less than 20%).

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