That long term prognosis is probably realistic, but the problem most people have is that they over-estimate their risk tolerance and are greatly subject to buyer's remorse, and then get chopped up...I am willing to be out of NE or any beta stock waiting for months/years at a time if that is what it takes to get the entry point I am looking for, given the overall macro backdrop that prevails...Everybody has a strategy (hopefully) that works for them.
I bought a chunk at 36.34. Couldn't resist. This seems just too harsh...6% dip in one day. If Oil was under 90 I might be worried, but it's still pretty high on a relative basis for what NE needs to keep things on track.
Floodgates are opening up a little bit, seems like a computer hft selloff. It's a bit exaggerated now. Even some big caps are getting crushed. I think there is an opportunity to buy and sell into late next week, but I am saving the rest of my disposable ammo for a gap down monday am
My hedges are all working, but unfortunately they're all small and at this point I'm out of the short Oil hedge and the SPY hedge. Keeping the VXX long in case panic sets in.
Yeah, looks like my 37 buy in NE wasn't too great. Should have stuck to my post opinion which was trend day down with good chance of more to come on Monday. Today really feels like a major shift to "risk off" the way Oil is getting so totally creamed.
Chute, you know I wish nobody bad timing, but given elections over the weekend, I would rather continue being on the outside looking in...IMHO.
That said, you guys use sophisticated hedging strategies that I do not.
Be careful out there, it is ruthless, HFT and GS, etc, who knows.
This is why I only bought partial back. A typical setup for a weak Friday would be weakness into the close then follow through on Monday, Tuesday morning down and then a turnaround after the first hour or two. But no guarantees and I have plenty of room to add to NE as my position isn't too big right now.