don't know the specifics, but do know that they downgraded NE and 10 other oil service stocks in mid June last year....those stocks went down a little over a week period and then spent months going straight up. In NE's case it went from around 32 to 30 briefly before spending 2 months in a steady uptrend to above 38 by August.
So, it appears we'll have yet another month were you could accumulate (or sell puts) as we approached 34 and should have lightened (or sold calls) as 38 came into view.
A boring, moderately profitable month, as I sold some 32 puts for 42 cents 3 weeks ago and then got a meager 15 cents for some 38 calls a week ago. Not great trades, but it appears they might both expire to my benefit. I feel a little like the vulture who wonders if it wouldn't be better to just kill something (i.e., trade the stock more aggressively) but for now I'm waiting.
Sounds like RJ jumped on the bearish bandwagon last summer just as that early summer swoon was ending. I hadn't noticed that mistake, although I don't follow analysts very closely.
RJ did have a very bearish call on oil for 2013, which was out in the last week: "So using our bottom-up, play-by-play oil model, we think to get going with the slowdown you need to see pricing average $65 for 2013." Yikes.
If you're looking for $65 oil, NE's not a market perform, it's a short (this being my take-away on RJ's call, not my personal opinion). I know there's no shortage of oil, due to the unexpected boom in US onshore production, but I'd be surprised to see it at $65 this year.