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Noble Corp. Message Board

  • nysfparachute nysfparachute Jan 9, 2013 2:42 PM Flag

    some thoughts on OIH from Barclays

    Oil Services 2013 outlook; megacycle rolls on- Barclays (40.18 +0.06)
    Barclays notes that the megacycle for the oil services industry will continue in 2013, though it remains largely obscured by concerns over an unsteady recovery in China, the ongoing debt saga in Europe and depressed equity valuations globally. Despite the macro anxieties, the reasons to own oil services stocks remain clear: the world is increasingly short energy, hydrocarbon prices are at attractive levels for investment and are likely to rise further, CAPEX on energy investments is growing and, as the bottleneck, the oil services companies are likely to capture the lion's share of the economic benefit of this unfolding trend.

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    • My thinking is that with that type of backdrop combined with the seasonal trade in the first quarter of the new year combined with a depressed valuation in NE relative to its revenue potential over the next couple of years, makes for a good risk/reward for at least the first 3 months of this year.

      I would have the boat totally loaded if it wasn't for some nervousness going into earnings season and also NE's earnings and what happens in late February as investors anticipate problems stemming from the fiscal cliff issues that will need to be revisited in March. Still, I think the seasonal trade trumps the concerns as the big traders force the trade as long as the market doesn't collapse. Probably better off in ESV, but NE seems more defensive and ESV seems like it is already priced for their better execution, and NE could always surprise by improving their execution.

 
NE
30.36-0.01(-0.03%)Apr 17 4:03 PMEDT

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