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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

  • nysfparachute nysfparachute Jan 24, 2013 12:55 PM Flag

    I think you start to buy it here

    I was out for earnings, but just bought a starting position of 1k @ 38.05. In the past when NE had a bad report, it recovered, esp. if seasonal strength is still intact for oil service. I think that seasonal strength has some more legs for at least a month or two, so buying NE. I think it has a chance of testing 40 again, and think it could go more with the tailwind of newbuilds this year. With China seeming like it is back in strong growth mode, I think oil prices stay high and the drillers contine to rise.

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    • After some hemming and hawing yesterday...I opted to keep NE, but sell the $42 June calls for $1.66 in my dad's IRA.

      Today's drop overshadows that obviously not the right choice. I don't think there were any surprises in the earnings, and the earning capacity is still there. So I'll tuck those shares away and check in on them towards the summer.

      In my own account, I have some Mar $32 puts that I sold for $1.40 some time ago. May buy those back for pennies and wait for a swoon in the market in general or oil in specific to sell some low 30's puts for $1.

      • 2 Replies to fauxcow
      • I'm actually out of NE, one of the few times that'd be true in the past 6 years. Had my last 4000 shares called away at 38. And I felt sort of dopey for selling cheap, with the shares near 40.

        I was actually antsy enough on Tuesday to sell 80 Feb 36 puts for .37, thinking that the stock was looking pretty strong. I did subsequently put in a standing order to buy to close at .18, figuring I'd take a quick 50% of my possible profit if it came my way.

        I did not see a second of the market's action today, so when I saw the 6% fall for the day, I thought "shoot, I mis-timed the trade". Oddly enough, all 80 options traded today at .18, even though that strike closed around .45 today. I guess I got the benefit of that little spike at 9:00 AM. No time stamp on the trade.

        Sometimes, it's better to be lucky than smart. Today I was stupidly lucky.

      • I am short some March 30, 31 anf 32 puts. I sold a few June 32 puts today.
        I think 32 to34 will be the bottom.

    • hope u are right but investors are getting fed up with mgt and their serial misses. down nearly 6%.

      one hopes all these billions spent and booming dayrates translate into higher earnings.

      • 1 Reply to hwan_kwon
      • I think that there is probably a lot of pressure on management to get downtime and expenses under control. So far they have not been able to, but I'm betting that they'll be able to show some improvement in the next few quarters. So far this market has been very forgiving. Other than AAPL, I've watched many stocks shrug off mediocre quarterly results. I think we get a little more pressure on NE and that then they start buying it again. I don't see us going to 35 unless we get a general market selloff. We're still in a strong seasonal trend for these guys. Not sure if I'll be right, but for now I'm going to continue to buy NE on any further dips. Have 1/3 of what I want at the moment.

    • I think we see $35 before we see $40

    • Good call Chute and today proves it ;))

8.33+0.180(+2.21%)Jun 29 4:00 PMEDT