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Noble Corporation plc Message Board

  • nysfparachute nysfparachute Mar 11, 2013 1:19 PM Flag

    technicals

    the high 35's are a critical area because it's around the 200 day sma. We broke down thru there over the last week, but Friday was a strong day with pretty good volume. Sold off today early, and now again trying to see if we can get up to the 200 sma. It's either going to act as a strong resistance point if we get rejected once again there, or we'll regain prices above say 36, build a little back and forth base and then if that happens we should test 38. I think the second scenario is more likely if the market holds up because the oil service stocks could play catch up to the overall market.

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    • Chute, if I were a "professional", I would short the OIH or your favorite individual name right here, just a short to medium term feeling as I see no catalyst other than perhaps maybe some incremental gasoline demand, I just can't count on an S&P continued, unjustified melt up to drag everything else with it...IMHO.

      By the way, as an anecdote, I am getting more coupons sent to me and generous ones too from really good restaurants...At least in Atlanta, the consumer is toast.

    • chute, I ask you this not to put you on the spot but for my own edification. Have you ever seen convincing evidence for the validity of technical analysis - moving averages, shapes on the chart, etc? Most of what I know about technical analysis is from "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", which doesn't speak too highly of the field, but I'd be interested to know whether any of it's been proven. I actually agree 35 has been an important area for NE historically (plus or minus a point), and that's what my gut says (how's that for unproven, anecdotal predicting!), but as for the high 35 range being specifically important... it seems pretty arbitrary.

      • 1 Reply to fields59
      • Technical analysis definitely works much of the time. Firstly, some of it is based on what people tend to do psychologically. For instance, when a stock holds a certain level for awhile, and then collapses say for a few weeks, the people who all bought at that pre-collapse level are likely to be praying they can get back to breakeven to stop the pain of losing money....so when it comes back up to the level where many people bought, now you have many of them wanting to sell to stop the pain. Secondly, many many people trade based on technicals, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. You can see this over and over again (way more than 50% of the time) when a stock breaks under it's 50 day simple moving average. Once it confirms the break, the selling accelerates and takes it down quite a bit more over the following trading sessions. Granted, technical analysis is just expressing a probability of something occuring, but if it was truly useless, no one would pay attention to it....enough people use it to make it a tool that gives you an edge, if for no other reason than the behavior pattern of all the other people watching it.

    • Thanks Chuter!!

 
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