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Noble Corp. Message Board

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Aug 14, 2013 10:02 PM Flag

    Which Way up or down

    I see rising bottoms and declining tops heading for the wedge of the two directional lines. Something must give. It looks like mid 35s is support if it breaks the 50 and 200 MA.
    We need a tool to see what the market looks like two weeks out...
    J

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    • Earlier this week I covered most of my position with September calls at $41.00.

      I think there is a high chance that either A) those calls don't get exercised or B) If exercised I'll be able to buy back lower in a dip in Oct/Nov

      I think it will take solid earnings to really break the cycle for NE/ESV...and those are still, as always, around the corner.

    • Down, I think.

      My reasons include seasonality, as the fall months are often volatile, as opposed to the the spring, which is usually more constructive for energy service names. My reasons also include the upcoming Fed unwind, the unending jousting between the House and the executive branch (which seems due to erupt again this fall), and the seemingly endless Euro worries. We've had a half a dozen pretty major (over $4) dips in the chart over the past 24 months, and I'm not seeing why yet another isn't more likely than not. Could I be wrong? Sure.

      We'll see, it's undeniable that the fundamentals are good and getting better, but the stock is a cyclical, and the wall street folk sell these guys hard whenever they smell the slightest trouble. Which they do about six times for every time there really is trouble. Therein lies opportunity, I think.

 
NE
15.94Jan 29 4:00 PMEST

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