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ProShares UltraShort Silver Message Board

  • zembeki100 zembeki100 Apr 19, 2011 1:24 PM Flag

    Gotta be Honest

    I bought this at 28, and 1000 shares I might add. I am down, what, $11k or 40% in just over one month. I have been at this for several years. By no means an experienced and dynamic trader, but I know my stuff very good and have not had a losing trade of any meaningful significance in a few years. That said, I have never seen a trade go the other way this bad and as fast as I have witnessed with the price of silver and subsequently the price action of this POS ZSL. I know the trade is right, but my timing is way off. I am not sure if I should book the loss, ride it out or triple down. The price action of gold and silver is acting as if the world is literally ending. Life will go on, you can be sure of that, and when it corrects, and it will but I really have no f-en idea when, it should be quick and ugly...Good thing I got another 30 years before it is time to hang them up. Live and learn. Best of luck to you all.

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    • "Your example is nonsense. You clearly don't understand the issue. First off, your math is wrong and the loss is 48 cents. Second, you are not equating point moves to the percentage moves. Basicly, what I explained to you, you don't understand"
      First - I do understand what you meant and said so in the very firs line of what I posted - and you are correct if we are talking about ONE or TWO days - however over a longer period of time - I used 10 days(for an example only) and it does hold true. Thanks for rounding the decimals off for me to .48 cents - I didn't feel that exact of figure was necessary to illustrate an example.

      I used percentage moves since that's the way ZSL price is figured(see below) it allows two unequal items(silver at 45 and zsl at 16 for example) so when silver moves 2% zsl moves 4 percent - not points.

      Fund Summary
      The investment seeks to provide daily investment results (before fees and expenses) that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of silver bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar fixing price for delivery in London.

    • I mean 80. I need a nap.

    • Actually, I did that backwards and wrong.

      If they are both at 100, and silver goes to 125, ZSL will go to 50. Then if silver goes back to 100, ZSL will go to 60.

      That is as clear as I can make it.

    • Your example is nonsense. You clearly don't understand the issue. First off, your math is wrong and the loss is 48 cents. Second, you are not equating point moves to the percentage moves. Basicly, what I explained to you, you don't understand.

      Let me see if I can break through here. If silver moves down from 100 to 75. That is a 25% percent drop. When silver returns to 100, that is a thirty three percent gain. ZSL, starting at 100, would go up 20 percent to 120. Then back down to 80 the next day.

      I can't make it any more clear than that. They are going different directions and that makes all volatility kill ZSL.

    • "I don't really care if you believe it"
      It's not a matter of believing or not believing - it's basic math - I posted the example anyone can prove or disprove - - simply saying "volatility increases losses" is 100% wrong. Volatility may increase profits could also be said - while both could be true - neither is a relevant statement.


      As an example โ€“ for the ease of understanding โ€“ let's assume -

      -10 day trading period up followed by 10 day trading period down
      2 percent per day increase in the price of silver per day
      4 percent decline in the price of ZSL per day
      Starting price of 35.00 for silver on day one
      Starting price of 30.00 for ZSL on day one

      At the end of the 1st 10 day period silver has appreciated to 41.82 and ZSL has depreciated to 19.94( it helps to remember you are compounding your gains as well as losses, much like interest)

      Starting the 2nd 10 day period

      2 percent per day decrease in the price of silver per day
      4 percent appreciation in the price of ZSL per day
      Starting price for silver is 41.82 and ZSL is 19.94

      I used rounded off figures for my example โ€“ but the end result was no more than a .25 cent decay.

      The end result is Silver at 34.16 and ZSL at 29.51

    • The Democrats and Obama said they wanted to destroy the economy and the USA.
      That is why all good Republicans bought Gold and Silver.....and Guns and Ammo......

      Only dumb liberals think gold and silver are rocks.

    • I'd hang in there, only because the silver rally has entered a stage of make or break, Gold has hit the year end traget in April! Tripple down is also an option
      but not all in... The price action in Silver is unsustainbale at the pace it's going for much longer an unexpected pull back will be swift and deep, but when no one really knows as now stupid money is buying and smart money is shorting every rally. Taking a loss is a tough task, but sometimes patience will prevail. I got in at $17.22 missed a chance to get out at $17.50, so I'll deal with the a paper loss for now and see what happems in the am. Good Luck and at the end make your own decision!!!

      • 1 Reply to momntmtrdr
      • I'd hang in there, only because the silver rally has entered a stage of make or break
        Agree - some people on this board seem to think you have 100% of your assets in silver or you are 100% short with everything you own at stake. Taking a small position now gives you some "money on the table" and makes it more interesting to watch when silver tanks - notice I didn't use the phrase "if" - I said "when" - I've seen this once before and may not live long enough to see it a third time - so I'm a part of history you might say.

        I'm probably the only poster on here who does not possess the ability to buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the top. I just have to be satisfied with buying and selling between the two.

    • If you still believe in the position sell this and lock in your loss and go short the double long(AGQ?)instead. Just be aware you are still in a leveraged ETF so if the bull continues it will be ugly over there too. Also, shorts do not qualify for LT cap gains treatment if you are eventually correct.

      You should never be long leveraged ETFs for long periods. They hurt you in a bad market but also in a sideways market.

      I am short some SLV and SIVR(unleveraged ETFs) Also feeling some pain. Quite a rally.

    • Why don't you just sell and buy calls in place of it if it's hurting bad. That way you've limited your loss on the bet.

      Triple down when this turns, don't do it while it's still going against you or you'll find yourself in the poor house. I am down on my calls, but hey, I've got till July and at the worst I'll just lose a few grand.

      You are not wrong in this trade. However, it can go to $60 pretty easily too. Pretty much everybody have to be squeezed out first.

      • 1 Reply to henli1000
      • Sometimes I say to myself, learn your lesson and lose it all to teach myself that I should have not even touched this. I was just getting so bored watching with 90% in cash and the euphoria with Silver just told me eventually the opposite will happen, but so far I am wrong by 40% and over $11k. I am a punk and deserve to feel the wrath of the markets forces. I also have trading restrictions due the nature of my job, which complicates all of trading I would normally do without fear. I have to think very different than the normal investor when I place a trade because of the holding-period requirements for both ETF's and stocks.

    • If you triple down on this, you will put a shotgun in your mouth within a month.

      Know how to take a loss. You are on the wrong side of this trade and you WILL lose everything if you keep buying.

      You don't know this market. The silver is all gone.

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