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Alliancebernstein Income Fund Message Board

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  • flipper_58 flipper_58 Nov 28, 2001 10:46 AM Flag


    IMO the low will be 2 possible points, the last few days of the rights offering and the last few days of the year (tax loss selling).

    I seem to see this a lot with different companies where shareholders miss the point on what's happening. They always assume it's a management conspiracy to screw shareholders...or that there is some hidden reason their stock is dropping. The bottom line is stocks go up and down by supply and demand....things like earnings, interest rates EFFECT supply and demand. Determine possible future supply and demand and you've determined where the stock will go, IMHO. ACG has 68mm possible NEW shares coming with a short period of time, this is a supply disruption with pre determined dilution, nothing more. If you can determine when the supply disruption is over you can guess the stocks bottom. I expect the stock to go below $8 in the short term and recover nicely mid the end of January.

    Fundamentally ACG will have roughly $.30 in dilution which puts the NAV roughly at $8.05 based off of a NAV of $8.35. The next question is does ACG actually EARN their dividend. Acquisitions costs cloud what I can find. The key issue is to determine whether they can comtinue to earn this great dividend. A $.84 dividend will certainly allow the stock to recover nicely once the supply bubble is thru.

    Of course just my humble opinion..JMHO

7.58-0.05(-0.66%)Feb 12 4:02 PMEST