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Alliancebernstein Income Fund Message Board

  • valueman60 valueman60 Nov 27, 2001 5:35 PM Flag

    Flyingdutchman

     

    Just some selling pressure. Smart money dropped bids to accumulate the stock on the cheap. After close today the company declared a regular dividend. Stock should recover nicely over time as its earnings and yield are very good.

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    • Well done flipper. These posters have to have a little faith. this co. wouldn't be doing this if they didn't have somewhere to go with the money. The consensus is that rates will stay down for a good while which makes this a very attractive yield, and will augur well for price appreciation , post offering. Like the man said "you buy this type of investment for income"
      jose

    • 164.845mm shares times $8.35=$1.376.45 billion
      68.6mm shares times $7.60($8 times .95)plus 4% taken off for expenses=$500.51mm
      total=233.45mm shares worth $1.876.96=$8.04/shr or $.31 dilution.

    • flipper - How did you come up with the $0.30 figure for dilution (assuming NAV of $8.35)?

    • IMO the low will be 2 possible points, the last few days of the rights offering and the last few days of the year (tax loss selling).

      I seem to see this a lot with different companies where shareholders miss the point on what's happening. They always assume it's a management conspiracy to screw shareholders...or that there is some hidden reason their stock is dropping. The bottom line is stocks go up and down by supply and demand....things like earnings, interest rates EFFECT supply and demand. Determine possible future supply and demand and you've determined where the stock will go, IMHO. ACG has 68mm possible NEW shares coming with a short period of time, this is a supply disruption with pre determined dilution, nothing more. If you can determine when the supply disruption is over you can guess the stocks bottom. I expect the stock to go below $8 in the short term and recover nicely mid the end of January.

      Fundamentally ACG will have roughly $.30 in dilution which puts the NAV roughly at $8.05 based off of a NAV of $8.35. The next question is does ACG actually EARN their dividend. Acquisitions costs cloud what I can find. The key issue is to determine whether they can comtinue to earn this great dividend. A $.84 dividend will certainly allow the stock to recover nicely once the supply bubble is thru.

      Of course just my humble opinion..JMHO

    • your buying point be in the near term?

    • yield is now 10.4 %. Once rights behind should go back to 9

      • 1 Reply to yuregoingplayces
      • If this thing breaks 8 bucks, I AM FINISHED. No more cafe lattes from starbucks. I am fresh out of cash. I am beside myself. Today this jackass stock dropped 15 cents (am I dreaming) and the nav was up. FUCK FUCK FUCK. I cant take it any more. Sami is behind this manipulation. All kidding aside, I am very worried about the ominous turn of events. The longs are leaving this stock like the taliban are fleeing into the mountains. The Northern alliance, (sami and his pink friend) are hammering thins thing into the ground with daisy cutter bombs. I hope and pray to the almighty stockgod that he smile upon this frigate and goose it back up to 8.99 so I can get out at break even.


        Hippo pitto mouth

 
ACG
7.600.00(0.00%)Nov 21 4:02 PMEST

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