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Alliancebernstein Income Fund Message Board

  • bare4 bare4 Apr 20, 2006 11:06 AM Flag

    ADX - DMI- phage

    phage, if you consider ADX-14 the best signal for a buy, is it also your choice as best signal for a sell?

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    • Yes, subject to the qualifications I've already given.

      1. The indicator is intended to give you the fat part of the move in terms of time-value--appreciation per unit of time. Those less concerned with time value and more concerned with the total value of the move (from start to finish,) should probably make their first buys in an accumulation on a swing failure of the RSI momentum indicator--lookback the same as DMI.

      2. Likewise, the DMI sell signal--an ADX rollover while above both plus and minus DI--is intended to cut off a trade whose time value is diminishing--not necessarily to peg the numerical top of the move.

      One might also look for some of the old signs when the DMI chart is in this configuarion. For instance, if XYZ is in a DMI top mode and begins to show high volume days that don't exceed the previous minor highs, then it's a logical conclusion that sellers are starting to come out in force.

      The point is that one must learn how to trade, before attempting to do so with money that matters. No one indicator--even one as good as DMI--teaches anybody to trade stock. That's mostly a matter of careful observation, practice, and understanding WHY you're doing it in the first place.

      For instance, I like DMI because it's about the thing we need to do most in purely trading situations: put the money at risk only when it's earning at very attractive rates and get it off the table when that rate materially tails off. In other words, we care about the RATE a lot more than the total value of the move.

      When we have different objectives--like wanting an attractively priced right of ownership in some property that just happens to trade in the stock market--then we work with different technical indicators. Trading is just intelligent shopping on that level.

      (BTW, you might want to try a DMI of 10-days on volatile stocks in a short cycle market like this one.)

      • 1 Reply to phage1998_992002
      • You know, I just remembered that you're the guy who posted that "TA doesn't work" msg a ways back in the thread.

        I don't resent that; but it tells me that you're probably inexperienced to the degree that you can't ask the very questions that would tell you whether it works, how, and to what extent.

        This article is a bit of Investors Intelligence self-promotion, based on Hurlburt's statistical analysis of their results over time:

        Their methods do work in the sense that they produced superior results for casual, intermediate term traders over the period of the study.

        More importantly, they work for a particular reason: their overall "theory" of financial markets is a good description of their price, internals, and sentiment activity over the known history. This is the "rhythm" of the markets seen on all time scales, and it's "contrarian" in the sense that excessive appreciation, broadest participation (of stocks within industry groups,) and the highest levels of optimism are seen as the point of maximum risk for new purchases. By contrast, the deeply oversold market with the poorest internals, and the maximum of fear becomes the point of least risk, (when these conditions begin to improve.)

        This is the correct general theory of markets for most investors and position traders. The best textbook I know on these all-important generalities is Justin Mamis's WHEN TO SELL.

        If I had it to do over again or was trying to teach it to somebody else, I'd probably begin with George Taylor's exhausting intraday trading method; because it draws your attention to the basics of the auction market through literally hundreds of trades in the time taken by a relative handful of intermediate trades. One sees the "auction" in progress every day in real time and the rhythms necessarily created by this process.

        But Taylor is very difficult to understand at first, and one would need the time to sit in front of the monitor for months.

        Failing that, I'd take the trouble to understand the general principles of technical analysis before concerning myself with making a living off this or that indicator or methodology.

        Sorry to be so didactic but I think this is of the utmost importance. If the message boards are any guide, many--possibly most--"traders" and "investors" simply don't know the basics, probably because they were in too much of a hurry to apply them.

        People have been trading and investing for hundreds of years. Their methods do in fact work--without necessarily producing an impossible certainty. At the margins, you're competing with the successful practitioners of these methods--the best who know the most. Those who can't stomach such competition or simply don't want to be bothered, (probably for very good reasons,) should farm the work out to something else.

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