AllianceBernstein Income Fund, Inc. Message Board
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Nice trend day up
Looks like a close just below
the high.
Don't think it will be too long,
or too much further up, before
the selling starts again. Important
to see how far they can take it
down; and, on the intraday level,
whether short sales are weak
or strong.-
I had one stock down today
IPE, a dopey inflation-indexed treasury ETF. I thought these things were safe
aside that, it was quite a day. it's safe to log back into your account (for a while anyway) -
Gotta say, though, that I expected some negative action with an hour and a half or so to go as you did. I am impressed with the orderliness of this advance(no big swings up and down typical of the last couple of months) and its relentlessness. Suggests to me strong follow through tomorrow when banks reopen and we get a look at a presumably much improved 90 day LIBOR number.
- 1 Reply to captainlate2001
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Yes, I did, but I wasn't sure what
it would amount to.
What we're seeing here is clearly
a climax, carried out over two
sessions; and I had noticed the
very heavy selling going on from
around 3:30 Friday.
So long as the pretty steady demand
you note continues, the sellers don't
need to break down the market: they
can just dole out whatever they
want or need to sell bit by bit and
on a steadily rising quotation.
Not what you'd call bulls, but
they benefit just the same.
Be that as it may, I can't really regard such panics up as greatly
more bullish than panics down.
They're just more agreeable for
the holders of investment securities.
Let's assume this thing steadies a
bit into a semblance of normal
trend development. What you'd then
expect to see tomorrow or Wednesday
would be Taylor's "short sale day"--
the day in which the advance is
checked, following which stocks
are again bought at slightly
more favorable prices.
The typical action would be either
an open around or through today's
high that begins to sell down almost
immediately; or, alternatively, an
open below today's high, a little
testing rally, and then the decline.
Neither would be particularly bearish
condition today's low isn't violated
in the decline. (Bulls would merely
take the low-value short sale, cover,
and buy the low of the decline Tuesday PM or Wednesday AM.
What we have now is really John
Magee's market "lacking intelligent
sponsorship." One can't do much
but chase and/or guess, whether
long or short.
Not my thing.
FWIW. You know I'm addicted to such
pickerish calculations as were
made by Taylor et al. on the ancient
trading floors.
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Here's hoping this is not just a 1 day wonder. No bond market today should add a bit of caution to the move.
- 1 Reply to taxpayer01824
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I'd expect the first short sale
tomorrow or early Wednesday.
That's not unusual and not fatal
to the trend reversal, condition
that the short sale's a weakish,
low value affair. What you don't
want to start seeing so soon is
violations of the immediately
preceding lows.
One possibly bullish factor I
forgot to mention is that THE
PLAN apparently works so far
but in a less than obvious way.
If the panic we've just seen had
taken place in the banking system,
as opposed to the auction markets,
we would have been under a bank
holiday by now, and the markets
would have crashed anyway.
As things now stand, those markets
were just fulfilling their function
of discounting everything, albeit
in grim fashion, but we didn't see
the widespread bank runs and financial system failure.
So, the worst was averted, at least
for now. Doesn't make me bullish,
but it's not trivial either.
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