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Alliancebernstein Income Fund Message Board

  • phage1998_992002 phage1998_992002 Oct 13, 2008 4:07 PM Flag

    Nice trend day up

    Looks like a close just below
    the high.

    Don't think it will be too long,
    or too much further up, before
    the selling starts again. Important
    to see how far they can take it
    down; and, on the intraday level,
    whether short sales are weak
    or strong.

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    • I had one stock down today
      IPE, a dopey inflation-indexed treasury ETF. I thought these things were safe
      aside that, it was quite a day. it's safe to log back into your account (for a while anyway)

    • Gotta say, though, that I expected some negative action with an hour and a half or so to go as you did. I am impressed with the orderliness of this advance(no big swings up and down typical of the last couple of months) and its relentlessness. Suggests to me strong follow through tomorrow when banks reopen and we get a look at a presumably much improved 90 day LIBOR number.

      • 1 Reply to captainlate2001
      • Yes, I did, but I wasn't sure what
        it would amount to.

        What we're seeing here is clearly
        a climax, carried out over two
        sessions; and I had noticed the
        very heavy selling going on from
        around 3:30 Friday.

        So long as the pretty steady demand
        you note continues, the sellers don't
        need to break down the market: they
        can just dole out whatever they
        want or need to sell bit by bit and
        on a steadily rising quotation.
        Not what you'd call bulls, but
        they benefit just the same.

        Be that as it may, I can't really regard such panics up as greatly
        more bullish than panics down.
        They're just more agreeable for
        the holders of investment securities.

        Let's assume this thing steadies a
        bit into a semblance of normal
        trend development. What you'd then
        expect to see tomorrow or Wednesday
        would be Taylor's "short sale day"--
        the day in which the advance is
        checked, following which stocks
        are again bought at slightly
        more favorable prices.

        The typical action would be either
        an open around or through today's
        high that begins to sell down almost
        immediately; or, alternatively, an
        open below today's high, a little
        testing rally, and then the decline.

        Neither would be particularly bearish
        condition today's low isn't violated
        in the decline. (Bulls would merely
        take the low-value short sale, cover,
        and buy the low of the decline Tuesday PM or Wednesday AM.

        What we have now is really John
        Magee's market "lacking intelligent
        sponsorship." One can't do much
        but chase and/or guess, whether
        long or short.

        Not my thing.

        FWIW. You know I'm addicted to such
        pickerish calculations as were
        made by Taylor et al. on the ancient
        trading floors.

    • Here's hoping this is not just a 1 day wonder. No bond market today should add a bit of caution to the move.

      • 1 Reply to taxpayer01824
      • I'd expect the first short sale
        tomorrow or early Wednesday.

        That's not unusual and not fatal
        to the trend reversal, condition
        that the short sale's a weakish,
        low value affair. What you don't
        want to start seeing so soon is
        violations of the immediately
        preceding lows.

        One possibly bullish factor I
        forgot to mention is that THE
        PLAN apparently works so far
        but in a less than obvious way.

        If the panic we've just seen had
        taken place in the banking system,
        as opposed to the auction markets,
        we would have been under a bank
        holiday by now, and the markets
        would have crashed anyway.

        As things now stand, those markets
        were just fulfilling their function
        of discounting everything, albeit
        in grim fashion, but we didn't see
        the widespread bank runs and financial system failure.

        So, the worst was averted, at least
        for now. Doesn't make me bullish,
        but it's not trivial either.

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