Don't think it will be too long, or too much further up, before the selling starts again. Important to see how far they can take it down; and, on the intraday level, whether short sales are weak or strong.
Gotta say, though, that I expected some negative action with an hour and a half or so to go as you did. I am impressed with the orderliness of this advance(no big swings up and down typical of the last couple of months) and its relentlessness. Suggests to me strong follow through tomorrow when banks reopen and we get a look at a presumably much improved 90 day LIBOR number.
Yes, I did, but I wasn't sure what it would amount to.
What we're seeing here is clearly a climax, carried out over two sessions; and I had noticed the very heavy selling going on from around 3:30 Friday.
So long as the pretty steady demand you note continues, the sellers don't need to break down the market: they can just dole out whatever they want or need to sell bit by bit and on a steadily rising quotation. Not what you'd call bulls, but they benefit just the same.
Be that as it may, I can't really regard such panics up as greatly more bullish than panics down. They're just more agreeable for the holders of investment securities.
Let's assume this thing steadies a bit into a semblance of normal trend development. What you'd then expect to see tomorrow or Wednesday would be Taylor's "short sale day"-- the day in which the advance is checked, following which stocks are again bought at slightly more favorable prices.
The typical action would be either an open around or through today's high that begins to sell down almost immediately; or, alternatively, an open below today's high, a little testing rally, and then the decline.
Neither would be particularly bearish condition today's low isn't violated in the decline. (Bulls would merely take the low-value short sale, cover, and buy the low of the decline Tuesday PM or Wednesday AM.
What we have now is really John Magee's market "lacking intelligent sponsorship." One can't do much but chase and/or guess, whether long or short.
Not my thing.
FWIW. You know I'm addicted to such pickerish calculations as were made by Taylor et al. on the ancient trading floors.
I'd expect the first short sale tomorrow or early Wednesday.
That's not unusual and not fatal to the trend reversal, condition that the short sale's a weakish, low value affair. What you don't want to start seeing so soon is violations of the immediately preceding lows.
One possibly bullish factor I forgot to mention is that THE PLAN apparently works so far but in a less than obvious way.
If the panic we've just seen had taken place in the banking system, as opposed to the auction markets, we would have been under a bank holiday by now, and the markets would have crashed anyway.
As things now stand, those markets were just fulfilling their function of discounting everything, albeit in grim fashion, but we didn't see the widespread bank runs and financial system failure.
So, the worst was averted, at least for now. Doesn't make me bullish, but it's not trivial either.