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Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. Message Board

  • zebraspit zebraspit Jul 24, 2007 12:19 PM Flag

    Zebraspit back to declare 'Victory' !

    To all you johnny-come-latelys(and others) who were so cocky at the top:
    Told you $60s and >3% yields wouldn't last....
    Thanks for all the profits on the puts!

    This stock is getting towards fair(er) value, which probably is low-mid $40s.
    It should be priced to yield equal to 1 year CDs, in my opinion.

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    • if you are looking for dividends take a look at HYB I think they are paying 10%

    • On the way to my "high $30s" target of fair value.
      But, going into a real housing depression, where rents slump(due to excess supply of housing stock)along with sales prices, this is still not very compelling even at that price.
      I'd be interested maybe when it is priced at an 8% yield or low $30s.
      And only because I like the management.

    • Goog Call I got puts (leaps) I see this stock going to 15 within the next year.
      I am looking for a 7 times returns on my investment. The rest of the yahoos don't see whats comming and buy the time they realize they will be out of money

      • 1 Reply to ralphla54
      • ok im back again with my .02 stock that I was posting about its now a .06 stock and still risky no guts no glory mon!
        all the rental outlets have to change there model the DVD come out as fast as the movie Blockbuster Netflix will have to change or die As for downloading movies thats not as easy as it sounds lots of hazles and restrictions. Soon you want to buy a movie you will have to go up to a kisok and order it and the store will burn it on the spot and print up the jacket for the case. Warner Brothers alones has over 6000 movies and such but can keep only 200 or so on the market cause of shelf space. what store or etailer can stock 6000 titles. The studios want this the stores want this and protcall is there to provide this! As far as I can tell they are the only game in town. If they can pull this off as a .02 investment can be jackpot or it can be all lost no guts no glory. As for Mid american who cares about there dumpy apartments.

    • Like I said, I've been on this Board since the late 90s, and have am a stakeholder, if you will, and have more passion, perhaps, than some of the drive-by yahoos.
      Up $6, down $6 whatever. Point is this stock should trade based on yield, primarily, and the dividend has been increased not much at all since the late '90s, so the stock was not worth 2-3x what it traded for at that same level of dividend.
      What made it do so was emotion, which comes and goes. Now the hunger for yield stocks at any price seems to be all but gone, and this stock will likely underperform for months to come until it gets to a more rational level - high $30s is my best guess. So, for your $50 you get $10-15 downside risk and lower yield than you can get in a risk free CD. Hardly compelling for even a non-chest beater.

    • Hey zebraspit hows it going? I remember you from a late 2005 discussion we had on the added risk of preferred shareholders when the company is taken private. Good info, and a belated thanks. I still have those maa-h shares. Now that the common is back to the price where I swapped them for the preferred I think I actually done a little better than holding the common. Now that the common has dropped, thus providing better value, MAA is again on my radar screen. The yield is still rather low. But its still is a yield starved world. If the economy goes into a recession I would think apartment REITS would do better than the rest of the market. People have to live somewhere after their homes gets foreclosed on. Any thoughts on where apartments REITS are heading?

      • 3 Replies to the_mountain_climber
      • Not my cup of tea. I can't believe a 2 cent stock, in such a highly competitive sector, will be a big winner, but, who knows? However, better odds, by far, in Vegas.
        Good luck.

      • Rents in many areas of the country are at historic highs. The condo and housing markeyt in general is very over build. IE supply and demand As forclosures and lack of sales push these units into the market, rents will fall at least for the next 1-2 years. These guys are over priced. Inflation is heating up. If you believe the FED inflation numbers then I can tell you where Sadam kept all his WMDs. Inflation raises interest rates. Who will settle to a 3% yeild when govenment bounds will yield 8%?

      • I think MAA is an OK buy here in the mid-40s. Great management, stable yield, good assets.
        I'm not buying it though, preferring more aggressive vehicles to play the coming lousy economy. And, if things get really bad in the economy, apartment rent levels may come down a little, along with all other RE pricing.

        My favorite right now is Colgate(CL), specifically the '10 $50 or $60 LEAP calls which offer a great chance to make 50-100% over the next couple of years as investors seek stocks that are not going to be negatively affected under any macro scenario that you can throw at it. Plus, most of their toothpaste/soap/pet-food business is overseas, in other, a very established global growth/weakening dollar/defensive stock that tends to do well during bad economies. Currently trading at relatively low p/e compared to what it has in past periods, particularly recessions.
        If the LEAPS don't make you a lot of money, the in-the-money ones will likely not lose you any, either, so good reward/risk.
        Colgate is not just getting into China, etc., they've been there for decades(their toothpaste, for instance, has almost a 40% market share), so this seemingly 'boring' stock could be a real darling in the next couple of years.

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