Interesting to note all of the whining about
depressed market valuation here, when the stock is trading
at its yearly highs.
All in all, it's
undervalued, a bit, but not as much as it had been at
Besides, MOST REITS are currently undervalued... and most
"Old Economy" value stocks are undervalued right now.
(that's why they call them value stocks,
Really, the only thing that makes this one seem so
particularly undervalued to some of you... is that YOU own it!
>>You're starting to
sound like a
I try to buy low, and try to sell high. That makes
for a good trade.
You seem to buy high, hope for
higher. That makes you a long term investor? More like a
momentum investor with a stubborn streak (not to mention,
an investor who would rather lose a capital gain,
than to pay tax it!).
I didn't go into WMI
until it was $14, until it was so washed-out that it
was obviously and ridiculously overdone on the
the sort of "anti-momentum" stock that I
Good luck with your strategy through Sept. and
Good thing about holding the turnaround stocks through
crashes and corrections, etc. is, they've already
corrected BEFORE you bought 'em.
Good risk/reward, you
Remember my qoute "Analyst are ALWAYS late to the
game"? Then you should take a look at the analyst
upgrades on HD and LOW Friday.
>I bet you
owned that[WMI] at some point and time before the
>>> Nope. Not when it was a high-flyer - I only buy
'em when the momentum crowd hates 'em, and there is
very favorable risk/reward.
Only problem with
buying like that is what I have said before about WMI
and LU. There is usually more than one snake in the
woodpile. For example, the first bad news on 7/6/99 took
WMI from $54 to $34. And look at it now. And you say
my strategies are risky?
>>BOTH of those companies were low priced, low P/E, high
yielders at the time of purchase. So please, don't try
laying all this high flying B/S at my door
>>Well, if they no longer are, it's at your
door now, like it or not. (Maybe you should pay some
capital gains taxes next year, while you still have
Like I have shared with you before, thanks for the
advise, but no thanks. If I took your advise last April I
would not be up about 10 large on EMC and CSCO now. I
do occasionally sell some shares after a nice
run-up, but I usually don't pay cap gain taxes on my
sales. And no, I'm not talking about a retirement
>>Random musing: Remember
that Nifty-50 "investors" in the early-70's felt
pretty smug, too - until about 1974.
I thought we
when through this with your LU example zebra. IF one
bought the nifty fifty on the DAY they traded at their
HIGHEST, then yes, it would have taken 9 years to break
even. But don't you think there was an investor or two
who got in BEFORE the high. Also zebra, I have shared
with you I am a long term investor. Even investors who
bought some of the nifty fifty at their high did better
than 10% annual if they were still holding today.
You're starting to sound like a trader.
>>And, as to your negative feelings about MAA and this
industry - tell us again: just why are you posting here,
if this is not your kind of
Please do tell me, what makes you feel as if you have
more right to post here than me or anyone
>> Maybe MAA fans should start hanging out over at
the CSCO amd EMC boards, and trash them, just for the
hell of it.
Trashing MAA? I don't call talking
about RISK of a stock trashing it. I guess I was
trashing CSCO in my message #551 when I wrote about the
RISK of that stock. Even Mr Cates (who I respect for
posting on this board) acknowledged the RISKS I wrote
about in message his message #558. And I would also say
he is trying to reduce the floating rate RISK I
wrote about by refinancing some more debt to a fixed
Since you have given me advice not once, but
twice, I feel as if I may give you some advice now. If
you think you have found a risk free investment, or
don't like facing the RISKS of a stock, maybe you
should reconsider being in the market altogether.
"Don't confuse an
historic bull market with genius"
I think that
statement applies to a lot of investors and large
For a lot of tech investors I think the statement
should be don't confuse a bubble with genius.
Some of us do "weigh" our portfolio regulary. When I
have a few months where the total P/E of my portfolio
rises every month due to rising stock prices, yes I do
celebrate a bit, but I worry as well. I don't suscribe to
the greater fool theory, but the financial worth of
Every investor that tried
to invest their own money should take a few courses
on accounting, economics, and finance. Perhaps real
estate as well. Or at least read a few books on the
With some of these companies (CSCO) if you look a
decade out at their current growth rates and then
compress their P/E to their growth rate they may grow in
price by less than 10% a year. Should the growth rate
slow then the P/E would most likely compress even more
and the return would most likely average less than 5%
over a decade.
If they lose money one year, watch
>>I bet you owned that[WMI] at some point
and time before the
Not when it was a high-flyer - I only buy 'em when
the momentum crowd hates 'em, and there is very
>>BOTH of those
companies were low priced, low P/E,
high yielders at
the time of purchase.
So please, don't try laying
high flying B/S at my door
Well, if they no longer are, it's at your door now,
like it or not. (Maybe you should pay some capital
gains taxes next year, while you still have
Random musing: Remember that Nifty-50 "investors" in the
early-70's felt pretty smug, too - until about 1974.
decision was to buy the high priced stocks of the darling
companies making the state-of-the-art products of the day -
they even called them one-decision stocks, as I
And, as to your negative feelings about MAA and this
industry - tell us again: just why are you posting here,
if this is not your kind of investment?
fans should start hanging out over at the CSCO amd EMC
boards, and trash them, just for the hell of it...
trouble is, some of us got a life, you know?
>Warning to all the kids that might be
watching at home:
Well zebra, you finally said
something that we both agree on.
But you seem to
think that ONLY high flying tech stocks are the ones
that take big falls. Think again. How about your WMI?
I bet you owned that at some point and time before
the drop. I certainly hope you weren't holding when
the toilet flushed. Or how about TWO companies that I
bought from the Dow 30 last year and were run off the
Dow by, dare I say, high flying tech companies. And
yes, being the long term investor I am I am still
holding S at $31 13/16 and GT at 50 3/8. OUCH! BOTH of
those companies were low priced, low P/E, high yielders
at the time of purchase. So please, don't try laying
all this high flying B/S at my door step.
>We'll check back in 25 years to see how much you've
held on to.
Yea, that's right. You have found
the only stock to earn a risk free high yielding 15%
LONG TERM return. Ever heard the saying "If it was
that easy everyone would be doing it"? What's that
they say about high yield? High risk? No. Couldn't be.
Well, let's take a look.
iwanttohearit asked Mr Cates why analyst antipathy was so high.
Maybe because the last earnings report showed a
whooping 1.4% increase over 2 Q 99. At least it was the
first time in six months MAA showed positive FFO growth
per share. Or maybe it's because of this CONTINUED
poor growth that MAA trades at a deep discount of 84%
as compared to other apartment companies of 94% in
terms of NAV.
But hey!, George says that as long
as you get your 15% a year it doesn't matter if it's
in the form of dividends or price appreciation.
Well, last April when I wrote my check to the IRS
didn't even ask how much my stocks appreciated. But I'm
sure George has A LOT better tax pro's than I
Or maybe iwanttohearits question can be answered by
the fact by the large amount (27%) of debt MAA has is
with floating rates and is at the mercy of Mr
Greenspan as we ALL are. And yes I am aware they have been
trying to restructure some of the debt.
of MOST concern to the analyst is the fact that MAA
cannot cover it's dividend payment with it's free cash
flow. Say WHAT? Yes you heard me right. Management of
MAA does ESTIMATE that the free cash flow will cover
the divided after it adds back certain depreciation
and amortization items that are deducted from the FFO
calculation. Hey, is that creative accounting (LEGAL) the same
those high flyers use?
So paaaaaaalease, stop
trying to make out like MAA is no risk. A P/E of 20 is
high for a company showing less than 2% growth and
that's SOME (no I don't claim to know all the answers,
but I'm sure Mr Cates can fill us in on some risks I
didn't touch on) of the reasons analyst don't think MAA
is a great a bargain as you do.
And please do
check back in 25. In case you haven't noticed little
things like the CEO's of major corporations on message
boards writing messages to common folks like me, the
world is a changin! And I used CSCO hardware to get
here and now EMC is going to store this message. Same
thing happens when Mr. Cate's posts a message. Simply
>>Like I said before, if the market takes a
haircut on Monday I'll STILL be about 25 YEARS
ahead of of the game if I had put my money in
We'll check back in 25 years to see how much you've
held on to.
Warning to all the kids that might
be watching at home: Don't confuse an historic
bull(****) market with genius.
Nothing. Just like I said last April in the
middle of the tech wreck. I'm not whinning about a
depressed market. My EMC is up ALMOST 100% while my CSCO is
up about 14%. Did you see the earnings report for
CSCO? Revenue up 61% to almost 6 BILLION? Earnings were
up a whooping 69% to OVER ONE BILLION! Growth like
that is amazing! I still believe CSCO is undervalued
at this point. Of concern is the fact that days in
inventory increased last quarter. IMO, which is not worth a
nickel, the increase is inventory was in response to
shortages many companies are experiencing in components. An
increase in A/R is of more concern but still at an
acceptable level and one most companies would die for. EMC
on the other hand is turbo charged and hitting on
all 8 cylinders. They expect revenue to hit 12
BILLION this year. Amazing!
I see your WMI has had
a nice run of about 33%. Great job when you
consider earnings fell into the Grand Canyon. Your CLE on
the other hand has been flat. Understandable when you
consider same store sales, the benchmark for the retail
industry, fell 1% and net income fell 16%. :(
probably early, which for me is often the case, but I
picked up HD and LOW after the drop in retail stocks
last week. Hey, I can't own all high tech!
Well, my Spring prediction that MAA preferreds
were a great total return value have proven to be true
- at least we are heading in a good direction. And.
adjusted for risk, a better bet than 99% of any tech
stocks I've seen over the past several
CSCO undervalued? Funny, I just read a report saying
it was one analyst's idea of the most OVERVALUED
stock in his universe. (Formerly, he had picked
high-flying market tech darling, Lucent, which, as you
probably know, subsequently lost more than 50%)
Ol' Blue Eyes used to sing(to paraphrase):Sometimes
you're flying high in April, shot down in May(or more
likely, September and October!)...
Good luck with