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Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. Message Board

  • zebraspit zebraspit Aug 18, 2000 1:17 PM Flag

    What's so extraordinary here?

    Interesting to note all of the whining about
    depressed market valuation here, when the stock is trading
    at its yearly highs.

    All in all, it's
    undervalued, a bit, but not as much as it had been at
    $21...

    Besides, MOST REITS are currently undervalued... and most
    "Old Economy" value stocks are undervalued right now.
    (that's why they call them value stocks,
    right?)

    Really, the only thing that makes this one seem so
    particularly undervalued to some of you... is that YOU own it!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • >>You're starting to
      sound like a
      trader.<<

      I try to buy low, and try to sell high. That makes
      for a good trade.
      You seem to buy high, hope for
      higher. That makes you a long term investor? More like a
      momentum investor with a stubborn streak (not to mention,
      an investor who would rather lose a capital gain,
      than to pay tax it!).

      I didn't go into WMI
      until it was $14, until it was so washed-out that it
      was obviously and ridiculously overdone on the
      downside -
      the sort of "anti-momentum" stock that I
      love.

      Good luck with your strategy through Sept. and
      Oct.
      Good thing about holding the turnaround stocks through
      crashes and corrections, etc. is, they've already
      corrected BEFORE you bought 'em.
      Good risk/reward, you
      know?

    • Remember my qoute "Analyst are ALWAYS late to the
      game"? Then you should take a look at the analyst
      upgrades on HD and LOW Friday.


      >I bet you
      owned that[WMI] at some point and time before the
      drop.<<
      >>> Nope. Not when it was a high-flyer - I only buy
      'em when the momentum crowd hates 'em, and there is
      very favorable risk/reward.

      Only problem with
      buying like that is what I have said before about WMI
      and LU. There is usually more than one snake in the
      woodpile. For example, the first bad news on 7/6/99 took
      WMI from $54 to $34. And look at it now. And you say
      my strategies are risky?




      >>BOTH of those companies were low priced, low P/E, high
      yielders at the time of purchase. So please, don't try
      laying all this high flying B/S at my door
      step.<<
      >>Well, if they no longer are, it's at your
      door now, like it or not. (Maybe you should pay some
      capital gains taxes next year, while you still have
      some)

      Like I have shared with you before, thanks for the
      advise, but no thanks. If I took your advise last April I
      would not be up about 10 large on EMC and CSCO now. I
      do occasionally sell some shares after a nice
      run-up, but I usually don't pay cap gain taxes on my
      sales. And no, I'm not talking about a retirement
      account.


      >>Random musing: Remember
      that Nifty-50 "investors" in the early-70's felt
      pretty smug, too - until about 1974.

      I thought we
      when through this with your LU example zebra. IF one
      bought the nifty fifty on the DAY they traded at their
      HIGHEST, then yes, it would have taken 9 years to break
      even. But don't you think there was an investor or two
      who got in BEFORE the high. Also zebra, I have shared
      with you I am a long term investor. Even investors who
      bought some of the nifty fifty at their high did better
      than 10% annual if they were still holding today.
      You're starting to sound like a trader.



      >>And, as to your negative feelings about MAA and this
      industry - tell us again: just why are you posting here,
      if this is not your kind of
      investment?

      Please do tell me, what makes you feel as if you have
      more right to post here than me or anyone
      else.


      >> Maybe MAA fans should start hanging out over at
      the CSCO amd EMC boards, and trash them, just for the
      hell of it.

      Trashing MAA? I don't call talking
      about RISK of a stock trashing it. I guess I was
      trashing CSCO in my message #551 when I wrote about the
      RISK of that stock. Even Mr Cates (who I respect for
      posting on this board) acknowledged the RISKS I wrote
      about in message his message #558. And I would also say
      he is trying to reduce the floating rate RISK I
      wrote about by refinancing some more debt to a fixed
      rate.
      Since you have given me advice not once, but
      twice, I feel as if I may give you some advice now. If
      you think you have found a risk free investment, or
      don't like facing the RISKS of a stock, maybe you
      should reconsider being in the market altogether.

    • zebraspit said,

      "Don't confuse an
      historic bull market with genius"

      I think that
      statement applies to a lot of investors and large
      caps.

      For a lot of tech investors I think the statement
      should be don't confuse a bubble with genius.


      Some of us do "weigh" our portfolio regulary. When I
      have a few months where the total P/E of my portfolio
      rises every month due to rising stock prices, yes I do
      celebrate a bit, but I worry as well. I don't suscribe to
      the greater fool theory, but the financial worth of
      my investments.

      Every investor that tried
      to invest their own money should take a few courses
      on accounting, economics, and finance. Perhaps real
      estate as well. Or at least read a few books on the
      subjects.

      With some of these companies (CSCO) if you look a
      decade out at their current growth rates and then
      compress their P/E to their growth rate they may grow in
      price by less than 10% a year. Should the growth rate
      slow then the P/E would most likely compress even more
      and the return would most likely average less than 5%
      over a decade.
      If they lose money one year, watch
      out!

    • >>I bet you owned that[WMI] at some point
      and time before the
      drop.<<

      Nope.
      Not when it was a high-flyer - I only buy 'em when
      the momentum crowd hates 'em, and there is very
      favorable risk/reward.

      >>BOTH of those

      companies were low priced, low P/E,
      high yielders at
      the time of purchase.
      So please, don't try laying
      all this
      high flying B/S at my door
      step.<<

      Well, if they no longer are, it's at your door now,
      like it or not. (Maybe you should pay some capital
      gains taxes next year, while you still have
      some)

      Random musing: Remember that Nifty-50 "investors" in the
      early-70's felt pretty smug, too - until about 1974.
      Only
      decision was to buy the high priced stocks of the darling
      companies making the state-of-the-art products of the day -
      they even called them one-decision stocks, as I
      recall.

      And, as to your negative feelings about MAA and this
      industry - tell us again: just why are you posting here,
      if this is not your kind of investment?
      Maybe MAA
      fans should start hanging out over at the CSCO amd EMC
      boards, and trash them, just for the hell of it...
      trouble is, some of us got a life, you know?

    • >Warning to all the kids that might be
      watching at home:

      Well zebra, you finally said
      something that we both agree on.

      But you seem to
      think that ONLY high flying tech stocks are the ones
      that take big falls. Think again. How about your WMI?
      I bet you owned that at some point and time before
      the drop. I certainly hope you weren't holding when
      the toilet flushed. Or how about TWO companies that I
      bought from the Dow 30 last year and were run off the
      Dow by, dare I say, high flying tech companies. And
      yes, being the long term investor I am I am still
      holding S at $31 13/16 and GT at 50 3/8. OUCH! BOTH of
      those companies were low priced, low P/E, high yielders
      at the time of purchase. So please, don't try laying
      all this high flying B/S at my door step.


      >We'll check back in 25 years to see how much you've
      held on to.

      Yea, that's right. You have found
      the only stock to earn a risk free high yielding 15%
      LONG TERM return. Ever heard the saying "If it was
      that easy everyone would be doing it"? What's that
      they say about high yield? High risk? No. Couldn't be.
      Well, let's take a look.

      The poster
      iwanttohearit asked Mr Cates why analyst antipathy was so high.
      Maybe because the last earnings report showed a
      whooping 1.4% increase over 2 Q 99. At least it was the
      first time in six months MAA showed positive FFO growth
      per share. Or maybe it's because of this CONTINUED
      poor growth that MAA trades at a deep discount of 84%
      as compared to other apartment companies of 94% in
      terms of NAV.

      But hey!, George says that as long
      as you get your 15% a year it doesn't matter if it's
      in the form of dividends or price appreciation.
      Well, last April when I wrote my check to the IRS
      didn't even ask how much my stocks appreciated. But I'm
      sure George has A LOT better tax pro's than I
      do.

      Or maybe iwanttohearits question can be answered by
      the fact by the large amount (27%) of debt MAA has is
      with floating rates and is at the mercy of Mr
      Greenspan as we ALL are. And yes I am aware they have been
      trying to restructure some of the debt.

      Or maybe
      of MOST concern to the analyst is the fact that MAA
      cannot cover it's dividend payment with it's free cash
      flow. Say WHAT? Yes you heard me right. Management of
      MAA does ESTIMATE that the free cash flow will cover
      the divided after it adds back certain depreciation
      and amortization items that are deducted from the FFO
      calculation. Hey, is that creative accounting (LEGAL) the same
      those high flyers use?

      So paaaaaaalease, stop
      trying to make out like MAA is no risk. A P/E of 20 is
      high for a company showing less than 2% growth and
      that's SOME (no I don't claim to know all the answers,
      but I'm sure Mr Cates can fill us in on some risks I
      didn't touch on) of the reasons analyst don't think MAA
      is a great a bargain as you do.

      And please do
      check back in 25. In case you haven't noticed little
      things like the CEO's of major corporations on message
      boards writing messages to common folks like me, the
      world is a changin! And I used CSCO hardware to get
      here and now EMC is going to store this message. Same
      thing happens when Mr. Cate's posts a message. Simply
      amazing.

    • >>Like I said before, if the market takes a
      50%
      haircut on Monday I'll STILL be about 25 YEARS
      ahead of of the game if I had put my money in

      MAA.<<

      We'll check back in 25 years to see how much you've
      held on to.

      Warning to all the kids that might
      be watching at home: Don't confuse an historic
      bull(****) market with genius.

    • Nothing. Just like I said last April in the
      middle of the tech wreck. I'm not whinning about a
      depressed market. My EMC is up ALMOST 100% while my CSCO is
      up about 14%. Did you see the earnings report for
      CSCO? Revenue up 61% to almost 6 BILLION? Earnings were
      up a whooping 69% to OVER ONE BILLION! Growth like
      that is amazing! I still believe CSCO is undervalued
      at this point. Of concern is the fact that days in
      inventory increased last quarter. IMO, which is not worth a
      nickel, the increase is inventory was in response to
      shortages many companies are experiencing in components. An
      increase in A/R is of more concern but still at an
      acceptable level and one most companies would die for. EMC
      on the other hand is turbo charged and hitting on
      all 8 cylinders. They expect revenue to hit 12
      BILLION this year. Amazing!

      I see your WMI has had
      a nice run of about 33%. Great job when you
      consider earnings fell into the Grand Canyon. Your CLE on
      the other hand has been flat. Understandable when you
      consider same store sales, the benchmark for the retail
      industry, fell 1% and net income fell 16%. :(

      I'm
      probably early, which for me is often the case, but I
      picked up HD and LOW after the drop in retail stocks
      last week. Hey, I can't own all high tech!

      • 2 Replies to gvrn3_1
      • Well, my Spring prediction that MAA preferreds
        were a great total return value have proven to be true
        - at least we are heading in a good direction. And.
        adjusted for risk, a better bet than 99% of any tech
        stocks I've seen over the past several
        months.

        CSCO undervalued? Funny, I just read a report saying
        it was one analyst's idea of the most OVERVALUED
        stock in his universe. (Formerly, he had picked
        high-flying market tech darling, Lucent, which, as you
        probably know, subsequently lost more than 50%)

        As
        Ol' Blue Eyes used to sing(to paraphrase):Sometimes
        you're flying high in April, shot down in May(or more
        likely, September and October!)...

        Good luck with
        your highflyers,

      • <EOM>

 
MAA
71.87-0.03(-0.04%)Aug 28 4:04 PMEDT

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