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Aphton Corp. (APHT) Message Board

  • canoeoften canoeoften Feb 20, 2003 11:22 AM Flag

    Gevas sighting

    Last night he was at the grocery store checking the grapefruits. He looked very relaxed and took his time finding the best ones. Then he strolled over the meat section and talked with the butcher for a while. Not the actions of a man who is concerned about the deal with Adventis getting done. He seems to have the quiet confidence of someone who knows that all is going OK.

    Seems to me that funding would be easier if APHT considered Thurston's advice and found a comfortable middle ground between extremely limited news and excessive pumping. There are lots of people out here who really believe in Aphton's products and in management but some days are very uncertain due to the lack of news. Without the reports from the barber, butcher, fitness instructor, etc, we would have no idea what was going on inside the company.

    But with the Adventis deal coming soon, lots of the concern will disappear.


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    • But all patients would need to be included in the "overall" hazard ratio. If they're just looking at the patients with stage IV disease that's not the overall patient population (unless the trial enrolled patients with stage IV disease only).

    • If this is not a deal sweetner i dont know what is!

    • Hazard ratio for everyone in the trial.

    • what is meant by the overall hazard ratio?

    • The press release discussed the overall hazard ratio though. Don't think they could have got that unless they had data for all of the patients.

      Awful lot of volume this morning.

    • hello. does anyone know why the share price is indicated at 3.60 before the market has opened - knowing that it closed at 2.92 yesterday??

      thanks guys.

    • terry

      if this hits a hundred i say vegas. prime restaraunt in the bellagio. i will buy all the french wine. will bring some long time aphton shareholders with me.

    • <<Everything was preceded by a lengthy dissertation on how my wife and I would be told nothing because Aphton was not about to be sued for lack of disclosure to selected people.>>

      Another potential problem is the selective disclosure of information. The way that press release was worded seems to lead one to believe that the trial met its endpoint. If it turns out that there was only a trend towards statistical significance or if they were only talking about a subgroup then that would be a problem. There's a comment about the overall hazard ratio but then there's the other part where they only mention patients with stage IV disease.

      <<But the FDA requires two trials with a 95%+ CI. And inefficacious drugs, as well as unsafe ones, are even then sometimes approved. And then sometimes the FDA forgets about controlled trials altogether for temporary approval.>>

      I'm not so much concerned about what the FDA or other regulatory bodies ultimately do when and if APHT files for approval. there's always risk. This isn't about that though.

    • No. I haven't ventured to Aphton's meeting yet. May do that some day. Would be fun to meet you. Thanks for all the perspective you add to this board. You understand the technical/medical part far better than I do. I appreciate your input.


    • I became a shareholder in Aphton because I believe their technology holds a lot of promise. I rarely look at this Yahoo board because it's so much nonsense (except for occasional intelligent postings by Terry and sometimes a couple of others--your Gevas sightings are quite amusing too!)

      I called the company yesterday and left a msg. for IR on their main line. They called me back within the hour and I was told the following, which makes perfect sense (to me, anyway):

      They were advised by their attorneys that they are in a "quiet, or blackout" period while in continuing negotiations with Aventis and could not comment on the Aventis deal in any way, shape or form. They NEVER make projections. They referred me back to their public statements. They also said they had submitted an abstract(s?)to ASCO for the conference in May and expected that Aventis would feature them in their symposium on gastric cancer, as they did last year at ASCO. They also said the patient mentioned in their news release turned out to be a friend of a long-term Aphton shareholder and that they were told he was doing extremely well. Apparently the patient was told about Aphton's clinical trials by his Aphton shareholder friend, then the patient told his doctor, and his doctor got him into the trial. The patient is now not only surviving, but feeling really good (with no toxcicity) on Aphton's drug alone.

      In my opinion, this is a much better story than the one a few years ago about the ImClone patient (I think that article was in Vanity Fair). ImClone hyped and look where it got them--Aphton doesn't hype, but I think their day will come in good time. I think the bottom line for investors is that if you believe Aphton has something of value, then invest--and if you don't, then invest elsewhere.

      By the way, I was told years ago that Aphton (in Greek, I think?) means "something of value."

      • 3 Replies to wills_111
      • wills 111. Thank you for sharing the information, good advice.

      • <<They also said they had submitted an abstract(s?)to ASCO for the conference in May and expected that Aventis would feature them in their symposium on gastric cancer, as they did last year at ASCO.>>

        I just wish that the company had put a little more effort into the press release for the phase III trial results. As it stands now, everyone has to wait for that because the press release doesn't contain the info needed to properly interpret the results. The info that I want will probably be in the abstract (p value, patient population). Thanks APHT, for all your help with my questions.

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