Oil well SCVS & Equip:
Weekly Chart: Mov
Avg's; 10 crossed the 20, 4 bars ago and the 20 has
crossed the 30 on COB 4-23-99. All 3 MA's are (for now)
in proper alignment. A very positive sign. MACD is
in a nice uptrend and continues to "Diverge".
Another positive sign.
Stochastics is approaching the
"OverBought" zone (slow at 76.x).
The index closed at 167.x
and the 30 Bar MA is at 147.x, and is well above the
30 Bar MA. The volume bar is yellow and indicates
that the price for the week did not change with
respect to last weeks close.
PKD Weekly Chart: PKD
closed the week on an up note. Opened at 3.88 and closed
at 3.94. Also the close is above all 3 MAs. MACD
like its index continues to "Diverge" and is in a very
nice uptrend. Stochastics is also in a nice uptrend
with the slow at 54%. With respect to my 5 bar weekly
volume average (2.95Mil), this weeks volume was 4.14
LC: For the past 8 weeks I have
summed up each weeks open and close. On average PKD has
inched up in price at a 0.14 average.
of trend is noticeable on YAHOO chart and is
trending up at a nice slow pace. Pure speculation on my
part, but no attention will be drawn to PKD at this
pace until it is too late. This next statement is
50/50 and is not intended to offend anyone. If PKD
makes it past 5.0 a lot of doom and gloomers and the
wait and see will have missed an initial opportunity
to capitalize and make close to 100% of their
invested money with an additional opportunity to pull the
initial investment and let their profits ride. I do not
do this all the time but I do it on occassion. Why
don't I do it all the time? because I too get
About all I can offer at this time. Good luck to
Down earnings by PKD are a non-event, this stock
is begining to reflect the improving fundamentals
(oil prices), so past earnings like past winds do not
twirl wind mills.
Keep your eyes on "the ball" oil
prices, and forget about all the other fluff.
fine company is one of the greatest turn around
situations in the make, sells close to book value, their
rigs are first class iron, and the leverage (debt)
will start working its magic as soon as the level of
activity (rig count) begins to rise, and oil companies
reverse their E. and P. budgets.
my guess, based on a few other
os stocks neg. earnings is that its factored in
A os sismic co. I follow actually went up after a
Not much downside here anyway
I called Parker's Main Office and got this date.
Note that last quarter the earnings were posted
punctually on April 15th. Earnings Whispers had given a
negative earnings (loss, of course) a couple of weeks ago
(-.18). Any advice whether this is built into the current
stock price, or can we expect a fall on or near that
By the way, I've learned a lot about the oil
drilling business from this board. I appreciate the posts
that stick to the topic, Parker Drilling.
sure thing, here it is,you have to sign up for
it,but its free and i have never had problems with
getting a quote from them,on occasion they were a little
slow due to heavy action,but i think they have
improved on that now. good luck. the
Message from a first time poster and small
shareholder of PKD. I thoroughly enjoy reading the banter
back and forth on this bulletin board. It's great
entertainment. P.S. Someone previously had mentioned they had a
site that provided free real time stock quotes.
Sounded too good to be true. Please refresh my memory.
[Continued from Previous Screen]
Marsh, editor of Offshore Data Services, which monitors
oil drilling activity, says that a sustained price of
$16-$18 per barrel would likely lead to 90%-95%
utilization rates by the end of 2000, or even before that.
But Vietor argues that by then it will be too late to
buy the stocks because the share prices of drillers
would already reflect improved market
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter analyst John Lovoi, who has
an Overweight rating on the group, maintains that
the natural corrective forces following last year's
oil price collapse are already at work: He points out
that both oil and gas production in the U.S. are still
falling, and the supply from OPEC continues to dry up as
well. Lovoi is convinced the current rise in oil prices
is "for real" because the credibility of Saudi
Arabia, OPEC's swing producer, is riding on the recently
Meanwhile, oil and
gas demand continues to rise thanks to a buoyant U.S.
economy, reversing the previous cyclical weakness in
demand that hurt these stocks.
Vietor, who last
week upgraded ratings on ten oil services companies,
says that shallow- water drillers, land drillers and
integrated service companies should benefit from an early
surge in E&P capital spending because their contracts
tend to be relatively short -- picking up changes in
day rates more quickly. He upgraded Marine Drilling
and Pride International to Buy From Hold, and R&B
Falcon and Transocean Offshore to Accumulate from Hold,
among other upgrades.
Lovoi also has been
upgrading many oil service stocks in recent weeks,
including Halliburton, to a Strong Buy from Accumulate; BJ
Services, to Outperform from Hold, and R&B Falcon, to
Outperform from Neutral.
Both Lovoi and Vietor
acknowledge that on current 1999 earnings
valuations for the oil service stocks appear stretched. Many
sell at double-digit price-to-earnings multiples
(P/Es) on 1999 earnings that currently are expected to
fall anywhere from 33%-80%.
But 1999 earnings
estimates are a lagging indicator at this point and
incorporate a crude price that is just too low, Lovoi
maintains. The bulls expect earnings estimates to start
rising by the third or fourth quarter of this
Lovoi estimates the E&P companies could jack up
spending by as much as 15% next year. That would mean
healthy revenue growth for oil service companies -- and a
sharp improvement in operating profits. "You're going
to see 30%-50% earnings increases in the group in
2000," Lovoi predicts.
He thinks that the next
upward move in the group's stock prices could come even
before the expected earnings turnaround later this year.
It's a small, essentially unloved sector in which most
institutions are still underweighted, he says. That gives it
great leverage on the upside if sentiment shifts --
even before that shows up in better reported earnings,
Though oil service shares have moved
up nicely, these volatile and beaten-down stocks
still lack the allure of technology and financial
superstars. But as crude prices firm and drilling activity
picks up, investors may well rediscover their lost
Many thanks for your analysis, EZ. I especially
noted your observation re PKD, "trending up at a nice
slow pace," over EIGHT WEEKS. That's exactly the way
it came down....in a nice orderly manner. Once it
began, like the Eveready Rabbit, it just kept on going.
I hasten to add, I have no idea if we will continue
on this upward track, but it IS beginning to
resemble a trend, in face of non-supporting fundamentals
(as T34B ably and accurately points out). That's what
"technical analysis" is all about though, right EZ? If I
understand it properly, it can indeed, ON OCCASION be a
great timing device. No prediction here, but I do agree
it does "appear" we are being drawn along a track.
Therefore, I believe it wouldn't be imprudent to have a few
cars loaded just in case we don't back up a siding to
rest awhile or even retrace some already covered
ground before we hopefully climb on up the mountain (of
the followers of PKD.
An Oil Company to
April 19, 1999 - 4:30 PM
By Mike Simmons
The enthusiasm was contagious and widespread Friday.
The buyers just kept coming, pushing oil service
stocks higher and higher in a day reminiscent of the
"boom" days of 1997. It was the type of day the
dyed-in-the-wool sector bulls dream of. The Oil Service Index was
up a load-da-boat 9.4% to 72.04.
service sector investors go giddy on a day like Friday,
the boys in the patch get almost teary-eyed with joy
when they hear news like we heard out of Vastar
Resources (VRI) last
week. The Houston-based company
reported first-quarter net income of 19 cents a diluted
share, beating estimates and coming along with a 24%
production increase from a year ago. The company also
reported continued success with its exploration
I have been a long-time fan of Vastar. In
fact, Vastar was one of the original picks in my
Offshore Drilling Bits portfolio of offshore stocks. The
company is hard at work doing the right
put together a no-nonsense Gulf of Mexico exploration
and production company with a strong focus on
deepwater - elephant hunting in the "new" frontier. Vastar
is not playing rope-a-dope during low and
commodity prices. They are in the ring buying leases,
holes and building for the future. The ongoing oil
company consolidation craze will put a damper on drilling
for awhile for most companies. Until the dust settles
and the new corner offices are assigned in the
combined companies, no one knows who is allowed to spend
Lease and drilling prospect inventories must be
Every oil company has an A-B-C priority list of
prospects. When two A-B-C lists are combined there are
inevitable conflicts. Many leases will be sold, traded or
farmed out to others. Simply - they need time to get
organized. Not so at Vastar. They are kickin' you know what
and taking names.
The threat to Vastar is
that BP Amoco (BPA) (and heaven
knows who else)
will decide to suck up the shares of Vastar
already owned by Atlantic Richfield (ARC) once BP Amoco
and Atlantic Richfield complete their planned merger.
Arco owns more than 80% of Vastar, but it's Vastar's
independence from Arco that has enabled Vastar to streamline
and focus its operations and strategy. Roll Vastar up
into the BP Amoco Arco behemoth and Vastar may go
stale or lose its pizzazz. continue on next post KRK
turning a new camel dung
Vastar and other exploration and production
companies will benefit TODAY from higher oil prices. If
desired, they can
sell-forward their production and
anticipated production and
lock in $17-a-barrel oil for
years to come, but I suspect oil
companies won't be
doing a large amount of forward selling. It
nature of the oilman to gamble, and the bean
and suits who run oil companies these days fancy
to be "oil men" in the tradition of J Paul (He who
drills the most wells finds the most oil) Getty.
Small oil companies are scrambling like chickens with
heads cut off trying to beg, steal or borrow in order
to get hold
of the crumbs falling off the giant
consolidation table. These
crumbs are not so crumby and will
be great drilling prospect
inventory for those
small and not-so-small companies that can
few. This spreading out, or distribution, of
prospects will lead to more customers for the oil
business, including the drillers. While some reports say
drillers' customer base is shrinking because of
the patch, I say it is expanding.
crumb collectors won't start drilling right away. They
too busy raking in the inventory. After the floor is
all swept and the lease fallout from the Big Boys
slacks off, that's when the smaller and more efficient
companies will get to drilling and see what came for
Christmas from Santa Big Oil.
Of course there are
always exceptions, as with independent oil
Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR), which isn't
for Christmas to start unwrapping its gifts.
company has partnered with private company Tana Oil &
to pick up an interest in an inventory of
ready-to-drill prospects, giving them a unique opportunity to
quickly deploy capital. KRK still turning over
Lets face it guys (in my opinion) we have charted
this oil service sector to death and have rode the
opec wave as far as I believe we can. What PKD, NBR,
NE, BHI etc have to do now is just start making some
hole! We need contracts!! The ball is in the oil
companies court right now and they can make money drilling
at present crude prices.