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Parker Drilling Co. Message Board

  • ezgreen ezgreen Apr 24, 1999 10:24 AM Flag

    PKD - review

    Oil well SCVS & Equip:
    Weekly Chart: Mov
    Avg's; 10 crossed the 20, 4 bars ago and the 20 has
    crossed the 30 on COB 4-23-99. All 3 MA's are (for now)
    in proper alignment. A very positive sign. MACD is
    in a nice uptrend and continues to "Diverge".
    Another positive sign.
    Stochastics is approaching the
    "OverBought" zone (slow at 76.x).
    The index closed at 167.x
    and the 30 Bar MA is at 147.x, and is well above the
    30 Bar MA. The volume bar is yellow and indicates
    that the price for the week did not change with
    respect to last weeks close.

    PKD Weekly Chart: PKD
    closed the week on an up note. Opened at 3.88 and closed
    at 3.94. Also the close is above all 3 MAs. MACD
    like its index continues to "Diverge" and is in a very
    nice uptrend. Stochastics is also in a nice uptrend
    with the slow at 54%. With respect to my 5 bar weekly
    volume average (2.95Mil), this weeks volume was 4.14
    Mil(> 40%).

    LC: For the past 8 weeks I have
    summed up each weeks open and close. On average PKD has
    inched up in price at a 0.14 average.
    PKD's reversal
    of trend is noticeable on YAHOO chart and is
    trending up at a nice slow pace. Pure speculation on my
    part, but no attention will be drawn to PKD at this
    pace until it is too late. This next statement is
    50/50 and is not intended to offend anyone. If PKD
    makes it past 5.0 a lot of doom and gloomers and the
    wait and see will have missed an initial opportunity
    to capitalize and make close to 100% of their
    invested money with an additional opportunity to pull the
    initial investment and let their profits ride. I do not
    do this all the time but I do it on occassion. Why
    don't I do it all the time? because I too get
    greedy.
    About all I can offer at this time. Good luck to
    all.
    ezgreen.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Down earnings by PKD are a non-event, this stock
      is begining to reflect the improving fundamentals
      (oil prices), so past earnings like past winds do not
      twirl wind mills.
      Keep your eyes on "the ball" oil
      prices, and forget about all the other fluff.
      This
      fine company is one of the greatest turn around
      situations in the make, sells close to book value, their
      rigs are first class iron, and the leverage (debt)
      will start working its magic as soon as the level of
      activity (rig count) begins to rise, and oil companies
      reverse their E. and P. budgets.

    • Clibbon,

      my guess, based on a few other

      os stocks neg. earnings is that its factored in
      already.
      A os sismic co. I follow actually went up after a
      negative posting.
      Not much downside here anyway
      Good
      Trading,
      EM

    • I called Parker's Main Office and got this date.
      Note that last quarter the earnings were posted
      punctually on April 15th. Earnings Whispers had given a
      negative earnings (loss, of course) a couple of weeks ago
      (-.18). Any advice whether this is built into the current
      stock price, or can we expect a fall on or near that
      day?
      By the way, I've learned a lot about the oil
      drilling business from this board. I appreciate the posts
      that stick to the topic, Parker Drilling.

    • sure thing, here it is,you have to sign up for
      it,but its free and i have never had problems with
      getting a quote from them,on occasion they were a little
      slow due to heavy action,but i think they have
      improved on that now. good luck. the
      kid

      http://www.freerealtime.com/

    • Message from a first time poster and small
      shareholder of PKD. I thoroughly enjoy reading the banter
      back and forth on this bulletin board. It's great
      entertainment. P.S. Someone previously had mentioned they had a
      site that provided free real time stock quotes.
      Sounded too good to be true. Please refresh my memory.
      Thanks.

    • [Continued from Previous Screen]

      Tom
      Marsh, editor of Offshore Data Services, which monitors
      oil drilling activity, says that a sustained price of
      $16-$18 per barrel would likely lead to 90%-95%
      utilization rates by the end of 2000, or even before that.
      But Vietor argues that by then it will be too late to
      buy the stocks because the share prices of drillers
      would already reflect improved market
      conditions.

      Morgan Stanley Dean Witter analyst John Lovoi, who has
      an Overweight rating on the group, maintains that
      the natural corrective forces following last year's
      oil price collapse are already at work: He points out
      that both oil and gas production in the U.S. are still
      falling, and the supply from OPEC continues to dry up as
      well. Lovoi is convinced the current rise in oil prices
      is "for real" because the credibility of Saudi
      Arabia, OPEC's swing producer, is riding on the recently
      adopted
      production cuts.

      Meanwhile, oil and
      gas demand continues to rise thanks to a buoyant U.S.
      economy, reversing the previous cyclical weakness in
      demand that hurt these stocks.

      Vietor, who last
      week upgraded ratings on ten oil services companies,
      says that shallow- water drillers, land drillers and
      integrated service companies should benefit from an early
      surge in E&P capital spending because their contracts
      tend to be relatively short -- picking up changes in
      day rates more quickly. He upgraded Marine Drilling
      and Pride International to Buy From Hold, and R&B
      Falcon and Transocean Offshore to Accumulate from Hold,
      among other upgrades.

      Lovoi also has been
      upgrading many oil service stocks in recent weeks,
      including Halliburton, to a Strong Buy from Accumulate; BJ
      Services, to Outperform from Hold, and R&B Falcon, to
      Outperform from Neutral.

      Both Lovoi and Vietor
      acknowledge that on current 1999 earnings
      estimates,
      valuations for the oil service stocks appear stretched. Many
      sell at double-digit price-to-earnings multiples
      (P/Es) on 1999 earnings that currently are expected to
      fall anywhere from 33%-80%.

      But 1999 earnings
      estimates are a lagging indicator at this point and
      incorporate a crude price that is just too low, Lovoi
      maintains. The bulls expect earnings estimates to start
      rising by the third or fourth quarter of this
      year.

      Lovoi estimates the E&P companies could jack up
      spending by as much as 15% next year. That would mean
      healthy revenue growth for oil service companies -- and a
      sharp improvement in operating profits. "You're going
      to see 30%-50% earnings increases in the group in
      2000," Lovoi predicts.

      He thinks that the next
      upward move in the group's stock prices could come even
      before the expected earnings turnaround later this year.
      It's a small, essentially unloved sector in which most
      institutions are still underweighted, he says. That gives it
      great leverage on the upside if sentiment shifts --
      even before that shows up in better reported earnings,
      he adds.

      Though oil service shares have moved
      up nicely, these volatile and beaten-down stocks
      still lack the allure of technology and financial
      superstars. But as crude prices firm and drilling activity
      picks up, investors may well rediscover their lost
      appeal. ###

    • Many thanks for your analysis, EZ. I especially
      noted your observation re PKD, "trending up at a nice
      slow pace," over EIGHT WEEKS. That's exactly the way
      it came down....in a nice orderly manner. Once it
      began, like the Eveready Rabbit, it just kept on going.
      I hasten to add, I have no idea if we will continue
      on this upward track, but it IS beginning to
      resemble a trend, in face of non-supporting fundamentals
      (as T34B ably and accurately points out). That's what
      "technical analysis" is all about though, right EZ? If I
      understand it properly, it can indeed, ON OCCASION be a
      great timing device. No prediction here, but I do agree
      it does "appear" we are being drawn along a track.
      Therefore, I believe it wouldn't be imprudent to have a few
      cars loaded just in case we don't back up a siding to
      rest awhile or even retrace some already covered
      ground before we hopefully climb on up the mountain (of
      worry??).

      L.C.

    • the followers of PKD.

      An Oil Company to
      Watch
      April 19, 1999 - 4:30 PM
      By Mike Simmons


      The enthusiasm was contagious and widespread Friday.
      The buyers just kept coming, pushing oil service
      stocks higher and higher in a day reminiscent of the
      "boom" days of 1997. It was the type of day the
      dyed-in-the-wool sector bulls dream of. The Oil Service Index was
      up a load-da-boat 9.4% to 72.04.
      While oil
      service sector investors go giddy on a day like Friday,
      the boys in the patch get almost teary-eyed with joy
      when they hear news like we heard out of Vastar
      Resources (VRI) last
      week. The Houston-based company
      reported first-quarter net income of 19 cents a diluted
      share, beating estimates and coming along with a 24%
      production increase from a year ago. The company also
      reported continued success with its exploration
      activities.
      I have been a long-time fan of Vastar. In
      fact, Vastar was one of the original picks in my
      Offshore Drilling Bits portfolio of offshore stocks. The
      company is hard at work doing the right
      things. They
      put together a no-nonsense Gulf of Mexico exploration
      and production company with a strong focus on
      deepwater - elephant hunting in the "new" frontier. Vastar
      is not playing rope-a-dope during low and
      uncertain
      commodity prices. They are in the ring buying leases,
      drilling
      holes and building for the future. The ongoing oil
      company consolidation craze will put a damper on drilling
      for awhile for most companies. Until the dust settles
      and the new corner offices are assigned in the
      combined companies, no one knows who is allowed to spend
      money.
      Lease and drilling prospect inventories must be
      reprioritized.
      Every oil company has an A-B-C priority list of
      drilling
      prospects. When two A-B-C lists are combined there are
      inevitable conflicts. Many leases will be sold, traded or
      farmed out to others. Simply - they need time to get
      organized. Not so at Vastar. They are kickin' you know what
      and taking names.

      The threat to Vastar is
      that BP Amoco (BPA) (and heaven
      knows who else)
      will decide to suck up the shares of Vastar
      not
      already owned by Atlantic Richfield (ARC) once BP Amoco
      and Atlantic Richfield complete their planned merger.
      Arco owns more than 80% of Vastar, but it's Vastar's
      independence from Arco that has enabled Vastar to streamline
      and focus its operations and strategy. Roll Vastar up
      into the BP Amoco Arco behemoth and Vastar may go
      stale or lose its pizzazz. continue on next post KRK
      turning a new camel dung

      • 1 Reply to Kha1idRKahn
      • Vastar and other exploration and production
        companies will benefit TODAY from higher oil prices. If
        desired, they can
        sell-forward their production and
        anticipated production and
        lock in $17-a-barrel oil for
        years to come, but I suspect oil
        companies won't be
        doing a large amount of forward selling. It
        is the
        nature of the oilman to gamble, and the bean
        counters
        and suits who run oil companies these days fancy
        themselves
        to be "oil men" in the tradition of J Paul (He who
        drills the most wells finds the most oil) Getty.


        Small oil companies are scrambling like chickens with
        their
        heads cut off trying to beg, steal or borrow in order
        to get hold
        of the crumbs falling off the giant
        consolidation table. These
        crumbs are not so crumby and will
        be great drilling prospect
        inventory for those
        small and not-so-small companies that can
        collect a
        few. This spreading out, or distribution, of
        drillable
        prospects will lead to more customers for the oil
        service
        business, including the drillers. While some reports say
        the
        drillers' customer base is shrinking because of
        consolidation in
        the patch, I say it is expanding.
        The
        crumb collectors won't start drilling right away. They
        are
        too busy raking in the inventory. After the floor is
        all swept and the lease fallout from the Big Boys
        slacks off, that's when the smaller and more efficient
        companies will get to drilling and see what came for
        Christmas from Santa Big Oil.
        Of course there are
        always exceptions, as with independent oil
        company
        Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR), which isn't
        waiting
        for Christmas to start unwrapping its gifts.
        This
        company has partnered with private company Tana Oil &
        Gas
        to pick up an interest in an inventory of
        ready-to-drill prospects, giving them a unique opportunity to
        quickly deploy capital. KRK still turning over

    • Lets face it guys (in my opinion) we have charted
      this oil service sector to death and have rode the
      opec wave as far as I believe we can. What PKD, NBR,
      NE, BHI etc have to do now is just start making some
      hole! We need contracts!! The ball is in the oil
      companies court right now and they can make money drilling
      at present crude prices.

 
PKD
3.09-0.02(-0.64%)Dec 26 4:01 PMEST

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