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Click Commerce, Inc. (CKCM) Message Board

  • ranmec ranmec Feb 15, 2005 4:39 PM Flag

    Magicdiscovery - question

    Any opinions about the last week of trading - price action, finding a bottom, future action...?

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    • Here is my observation for the last few days:

      Before the earning, there were a lot of short-term traders jumping in. They would sell after the earning no matter what. CKCM reported $7.2M and $0.17, which is very reasonable, and the profit margin improvement (from 20% to 25%) was actually very impressive. But those short-term traders thought CKCM��s revenue was shy of the ��analyst�� estimate (I personally think the so-called ��analyst�� didn��t understand much about Click��s business and miscalculated CKCM��s revenue). Anyway, short-term traders started to sell on Thursday evening and Friday, which also scared some ��longs�� who may have accumulated a lot of shares at $5. It��s somehow understandable that some ��longs�� got scared because most of them may have CKCM more than 50% in their portfolio. We saw quite a few "longs" dumped their shares on Thursday evening and Friday also. Thurday and Friday��s totally more than $4 drop must have triggered a lot of margin calls over the weekend. So Monday and Tuesday were basically margin call forced selling. Especially this morning, the stock dropped from $14 to $12.8 on heavy volume, mainly due to margin selling and panic selling. After touching $12.8, the stock bounced quickly and started to recovery during the whole day. Although at the end of day, the stock drifted again basically because there were some people had to sell due to margin call, but clearly the selling volume has drying out.

      Here is my thoughts for the next few days:

      I think the selling is nearly done after this morning��s washout sell. We may still have some people have to meet margin calls, but basically the selling is already drying out. And those who still have margin calls don��t need to sell CKCM to meet the call because other stocks are doing well at this time and they don��t need to sell CKCM at the rocket solid bottom. While selling is drying out, I believe there are a lot of buyers waiting on the sideline. I believe most of the ��longs�� who sold their shares still like CKCM, a majority of them will likely come back. There are a lot of shorts need to cover their positions. There are a lot of sideliners who like CKCM and have not had opportunities like this. Institutional buyers have been waiting to get in also. Once some of them see the stock won��t drop any more and decide to get in, others must follow, which will push the stock bounce sharply. I think tomorrow morning we may still open a little lower because some may still have to sell, but will not see anything close to what we had today. Once the initially selling is done, people will start to accumulate the stock, I believe the stock will close green tomorrow. And I believe once the stock starts to recover, buyers will rush in and we will see a $2 up day in one of next three days.

      Just two weeks ago, My CKCM was at $20, and my APLX was at $5. Now my CKCM is at $13 and my APLX is at $8. APLX is a very good company. It now has a forward PE of about 20, which is very reasonable for a company with 20-30% year over year revenue growth. On the other hand, due to recent panic selling, CKCM is now ridiculously priced at a forward PE of 10-12. Current situation reminds me what happened last summer. At that time, CKCM was clearly a bargain and a hidden gem, but nobody wanted to pick it up. I accumulated a lot. Since then CKCM ran from $5 to $21, now retraced half of the gains. $13 looks like a rocket solid bottom here. While we have 10% chance of going slightly lower, we have 90% chance of going much higher. Because of this consideration, I have sold half of my APLX positions today even though I think the stock will still go higher. I am ready to accumulate more CKCM in the next couple of days. While some are waiting for others to jump in, I will just do my accumulation.

      • 4 Replies to magicdiscovery
      • dito,

        You are more rational then I. I was in too early here with a $13.50 average cost.

        I usually wait for a 5hr MAA uptrend and didn't wait this time.

      • >>I think tomorrow morning we may still open a little lower because some may still have to sell, but will not see anything close to what we had today. Once the initially selling is done, people will start to accumulate the stock, I believe the stock will close green tomorrow. And I believe once the stock starts to recover, buyers will rush in and we will see a $2 up day in one of next three days.<<

        I DISAGREE...I'm amazed that you fell compelled to make that kind of prediction. You're LOSING credibilty...with me at least.

      • Thanks for your thorough prognostications. I hope for all "longs", the worst is behind us.

      • Man are you an idiot. Mister I got it figured out. your long boring posts crunching all the facts were wrong when it was $20 and it is wrong now. And just think, 8 idiots actually reccomended your garbage post. Yeah looks good in print but here's the real deal without a bunch of mumbo jumbo. CKCM will stabilize soon then bounce 30% then fade away for a long time. Plain and simple.

 

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