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Click Commerce, Inc. (CKCM) Message Board

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  • blue_devil_ninetynine blue_devil_ninetynine Oct 3, 2005 11:51 AM Flag

    Pre Earnings Release run-ups

    Agreed. I just added 500 shares to my position. By my estimation, I'm taking a downside risk of about a dollar for the next two weeks, for an upside of 5 to 10 dollars in a month. I figure the shorts have had their positions for a while. I doubt they'd be going further short at this time.

    Everyone do your own due diligence. Best of luck.

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    • there was only a four day run-up into the q1 of 2005 earnings announcement and that was after q4 of 2004 "disappointed" and the stock went on a tailspin from 21 to 9 from feb to early, considering the "disappointment" of q2 of 2005, if past is any prediction of future, the stock will keep falling here until just before earnings, not have a strong runup 15-25 days before earnings like you analyzed.

      not hoping for that, but that would be the pattern after a disappointing quarter.

      • 2 Replies to jeremyjeremyjeremy1
      • <<not hoping for that, but that would be the pattern after a disappointing quarter.>>

        I wouldn't describe the dive after Q2 is due to "disappointing quarter", and I know that would not be your choice of words.

        I think it was due to confusion after management used GAAP and non-GAAP numbers to report earnings for the first time, coupled with heavy short selling and planned sales by some big holders. As such, and as I have argued many times before for other reasons, CKCM's past patters would not be indicative of where the price is going imo.

      • The problem with the analysis of a "disapointing" quarter is that Q2 of 2005 was not a disapointing quarter by any reasonable analysis.

        The second problem with that analysis is previously, when CKCM had the "tailspin" from 21 to 9, there was a very large amount of shorting.

        currently, CKCM is bouncing on and off the SHO list. Therefore there are few shares left to short.

        CKCM has never went into earnings when there were few shares to short AND there were over 2 million shares short.

        Personally, I hope that there is no runnup to earnings and that CKCM PPS stays in the $17.50 to $19.00 range because I think that would be more likely to cause a large short squeeze.

        Because of the fact that it is difficult to short CKCM, I don't think CKCM will drop very much. In the past, when CKCM started down, people would notice that the stock is dropping and short. If enough people happened to decide to short at around the same time, the stock would drop a lot. But because of the fact that there are not many shares left to short, this can't happen to any large extent.