My Proposal to Both Merck KGAA and Oncothyreon Inc__Give Me A Thumb Up If You Agree
1) Merck KGAA should buy out Oncothyreon before year end depending on the safety result of ONT-10. If the next generation vaccine is safe and well tolerated (it would be even better if the drug shows any curable cancer effect though Phase I trial is not targeted at any efficacy), then immediately launch a buyout process for around $ 1 billion;
2) Oncothyreon should accept the offer if the price is around $ 1 billion at year end;
3) Merck KGAA should then immediately launch RESTART with Tecemotide for lung cancer and later launch a Phase II with Ont-10 for both ovarian or breast caners. If the results for both cancers are good, choose the most promising one and launch a final Phase III trial ASAP.
Think about the potential, a potential which will be overwhelmed if both are approved in the future (five to 8 years).
People, forget secondary, or PIPE, that's part of the life of any small biotech, Focus on the potential and real possibility. I would be a dumb CEO of Merck KGAA if I decided not to buy Oncothyreon now!
From Dr. Kirkman: Okay actually two ovarian caner patients saw their tumors shrunk (one at about three months in maintenance and the other much earlier in the treatment). A number of patients whose cancers were progressing achieved stabilization at least for six months. The immunization responses were strong and as good as preclinical trail results in addition to that Ont-10 being well tolerated and safe. Dose escalation is still ongoing.
When an analyst asked Kirckman a question regarding how would Oncoghyron would do to further Ont-10 trials, ie, go it alone or partnership, Kirkman said the word "ongoing" consultation. But the analysts seemed to miss it and let it slip away.
Have Oncothyreon been in discussion with Merck KGaa?
Yes, Ont-10 is safe and well tolerated on patients ranging from ovarian cancer to breast cancer. One patient with ovarian cancer had seen her cancer shrunk by 12%. Ont-10 is a potential multiple billion dollar vaccine!
ONTY's consideration of such a collaboration may be what is behind the recent steady rise in MRK.DE pps.
If a buyout was not on the table, we would have already seen a RESTART launch PR.
JMHO. BTW, how old is Kirkman?
Thanks for the thumb ups. I should add the followings, regarding that lots of people who are reluctance to put some money in buying onty shares at this stage:
It is understandable for the fear of secondary or share dilutions, and for the fear of no significant movements until after four and five years.
Well, I believe that if Merck KGAA did not have any agreement or clause in its SPA with FDA that could see early stop of the trial (RESTART), that is much clearer and more favorable than an average SPA based on the overwhelming START results, then it must have been the dumbest major pharmaceutical company I have ever been able to imagine!