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ORBCOMM, Inc. Message Board

  • analyst112 analyst112 May 9, 2013 1:42 PM Flag

    Conference call

    The CC was a little confusing. They provided 2Q guidance for the first time to $13.1MM of service revs and $4.4MM in hardware for $17.5MM of total revs. The 1st Quarter was $13.9MM of service revs so folks got excited. The stock immediately started to sell off from $4.20 to $3.88 on 40,000 shares. Selling begets selling. One analyst said message rates must be way off because you have more customers. CEO said no they are not. Turns out the bill back rev was $1MM which was not in release. So 1Q was $12.9mm service up from $12.4 in Q4 with 100K of Yen losses. So 2Q will be up and will have $200k of yen losses. The acquisitions are only 2 months of revs and will add $250k in incremental revs. The 4 analysts went over it 3 times while mistakenly hitting the sell button. What dopes. I think 2Q will be upside surprise at $13.4MM of revs.

    They have lots of moving parts this year with acquisitions, 18 bird launch, big capex, etc They will use $35MM of cash next 2 quarters leaving about $60MM at end of Q3. Nice cushion. There is a rumor that Iridium was going to try and get CAT business. When asked, CEO made it clear that there was a15 year relationship with CAT and that was unlikely to say the least.

    ORBC will launch, get many new customers, be low cost technology leader, and have global footprint. Pretty compelling offering. Stock could be $20 in a few years and downside is maybe $1/shr.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Some dumb hass made the low with 22,000 share dump at $3.88. I agree with you. Management is doing a great job and this will be $1 billion market cap company. Who cares about a few cents in the quarter one way or another? The acquistions will add $5-7MM of revs this year and they paid $7MM for that. Go OG2.

 
ORBC
6.22-0.20(-3.12%)Jul 21 4:00 PMEDT

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