No, you'll have one company that will still be losing money in PCs, has seven different operating systems, diminished ability to finance anything as both CPQ and HWP credit rating is about to drop, and will be struggling with its own integration issues for 24 months.
1) Credit rating will get better as they get costs out of the system.
2) 7 operating systems? I don't care if there are 100 each one is a seperate P&L with limited competition you must serve your customers and a partial monopoly is good...you make more money.
3) 24 months to integrate, NO, it will take longer! But that will make no difference, the seperate P&Ls protect each area and they will continue to make money and CUT costs over a 48 month period. It won't cost money to integrate it WILL make money!
You do not understand how good a market they have as a merged entity. You put too much faith in DELL, SUn they are nothing! Also you do not see how much cost there is to cut out of this system...t is huge probably, close to $15/share.
DELL is growing. They are pushing into business servers with a similar marketing and selling model that they've used successfully in the desktop market. Much like Microsoft did with Windows to Windows NT. Plus, DELL makes money.
I keep hearing about the costs being cut. I hope you don't believe it will be in PC component costs or assembly. That's such a slim business, a percent or two would be difficult to come up with. Certainly as two PC marketing organizations become one, etc some costs will be saved. HP is already quite slim in terms of headcount in these areas.
The problem with 7 operating system is that you have 7 ports of Oracle to deal with. Oracle is not going to fund it either. I use Oracle, but there are hundreds of software vendors that we will want to have, more everyday. Tough, knotty issue.
It really boils down to this: I don't see any synergy from HPUX-VMS-Tandem-Tru64 Unix being in the same company.
As for services, is HWP ready to alienate EDS, Accenture, PWC by becoming a direct competitor? If so, you can kiss all their business goodbye. Its a massive amount of business too.
I just don't see the glowing future. Could it work? Possibly. If it fails HWP will go into a Lucent-like death spiral. Its just not worth the risk.