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  • unclefulbert unclefulbert Sep 25, 2012 8:41 AM Flag

    Signs Obama losing


    You should take out a mortgage and bet on Romneyan ticket, great odds:

    We're tracking three sources of "odds" on the US Presidential election:

    Nate Silver's aggregate poll forecast
    Intrade's prediction market
    Betfair's prediction market

    President Obama's odds of winning the election have surged to new highs on the latter two over the past week and moved back toward recent highs on the third.

    First, Nate Silver of the New York Times currently gives Obama a 78% chance of reelection, close to the 80% peak just after the convention:

    On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds have surged since video surfaced last week of Mitt Romney dissing half the country in remarks at a private fundraiser and now stand at 73%:

    And, on Betfair, Obama's odds have continued to trend higher and are now around 80%:

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    • all of those are based on skewed polls.

      Go to:

      skewed polls



      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to maiturr
      • Yeah, I've looked at that web page. It says that every poll that exists, from Fox, to the NY times, and Reuters, is skewed in Obama's favor by anywhere from 3% to 11%.

        The only problems are thta,

        It doesn't say why every pollster in the nation, whether in the right or left, has given Obama an advantage.

        It doesn't say who is doing the skewing.

        It doesn't say how the skewing is being done.

        It doesn't say what evidence of the skewing exists, if any.

        It doesn't say where they got their "correct" polling numbers.

        It doesn't provide any reasons why their numbers are any better than the ones from the pollsters.

        And it doesn't even say whose #$%$ they pulled those numbers from.

        Sentiment: Hold

      • Put youtr money where your mouth is - if these polls are skewed then you can really make some money betting on Mittwit. Go for it.

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