What isn't going to happen in 2013:
--The Treasury will not mint the trillion dollar platinum coin to avoid the debt limit, although it could.
--Obama will not use the 14th Amendment to avoid the debt limit, although he could.
--The House Republicans will not force the country into default over the debt limit, although they could.
--The United States will not attack Iran.
--Congress will not renew the assault weapons ban
What is going to happen in 2013:
--Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense.
--The Supreme Court will support marriage equality for gays and lesbians
--Congress will pass stricter gun sale regulations including more extensive background checks and closing the gun show loophole
--The Federal Reserve will adopt a regime of NGDP level targeting in place of its current regime of inflation targeting
--Congress and the President will agree on significant entitlement reform including such things as raising the retirement age, reducing the inflation measure for Social Security COLAs, removing the cap on income subject to FICA taxation, means-testing for Social Security benefits, reducing Medicare benefits, and other measures designed to slow the growth of entitlement spending.
Those are my guesses about the future; what are yours?
Here's what I think will happen over the next year or so
- The economy, unemployment, and the stock market (and HPQ) will all improve slowing over the next year.
- The FY2013 deficit will fall below $900 billion. The FY2014 deficit will fall further, well below $500 billion.
- There will be more climate related very bad weather, droughts, floods, tornadoes, and/or Sandy level hurricanes. An outcry of "we've got to do something!" will force another attempt at a carbon tax, which will narrowly pass, along with funding for dikes and barriers to protect parts of the Atlantic coast.
- A new democratic government will form in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.
- Obama will meet with the leaders of the newly democratic Middle East countries. They will develop an outline for peace in the Middle East. Not perfect, but step in the right direction.
- Health care will fall off the radar, as Obamacare goes into effect, with decent results, but a bill will be considered to fix some of the pieces that don't work as hoped.
- Further observation and study of distant suns and solar systems will show at least 2 planets with the possibility of life, and maybe even intelligent life.