No doubt the recovery is quite fragile. If the two parties don't get their acts together, and we proceed with the sequester--talk about shooting yourself in the foot!--we will sink right back into recession. That does not have to happen and I am about 51% hopeful that it won't. One reason I don't think it will is that red states with big defense establishments will be among the biggest losers, so the pain from obstructionism will be deeply felt in places like South Carolina with Republican Senators and Congressmen.
Longer term, the Federal Reserve is inching its way ever so slowly to a practice of targeting nominal GDP, an idea that has gained tremendous traction in the past couple of years. I am also about 51% hopeful the Fed will explicitly embrace it but we're not there yet.
Obama's approval rating is over 60%. He has the bully pulpit. I thiknk he will use it to pressure Congress (his own party as well as the GOP) to act like responsible grown-ups instead of spoiled children.