1. Strong US Durable Goods results beat estimates
2. SP500 companies (40% have reported) Revenue Growth last qtr zero...now 4%
3. SP500 Earnings Growth last qtr 3%...now 5.2%
4. New home orders at Ryland up 52%, Horton up 39%, Toll up 36%, Lenar up 32%
5. Real estate lot prices are rising
6. Construction skilled labor shortage in some US regions
Bulls were correct Q2-Q3 2012 was earnings trough, and recovery is beginning to take hold with the gears meshing
Nearly all of the recent 1/10 of 1 percent drop in GDP and unemployment increase appears to be due to preparations for a 10% sequestration in government spending. About 40% of the national GDP comes from government spending. If you make significant cuts in government spending, then the GDP must drop and unemployment must rise. There is no other possibility if you really want to cut spending and lay off employees.
So, pick a single side of the fence to stand on. Either you want significant cuts in government spending, and the accompanying unemployment and drop in gdp, or you don't.
The new home orders is one of those odd stats. I have a few friends in RE, and the story is there is demand for first homes but all the people who would be trading up out of their starters are underwater and can't so there is no inventory of built starter homes and thus the building of new homes to satisfy that demand. Basically, all the people who bought in the boom are screwed into their current home.