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Hewlett-Packard Company Message Board

  • I4ABUCK I4ABUCK Dec 5, 1997 11:29 PM Flag

    ADVICE

    I purchased HWP at 69 3/8. As a young newcomer to investing this was my second stock purchase.I have been concerned about the recent slump in the price.I feel I paid to much for HWP and am wondering what a good value indicator for tech stocks would be?
    I'm thinking of making another purcase around the turn of the year. Do you seasoned veterans think it will be overpriced at that time, or should I continue putting my money with HWP? What advice can you guys give a 20 something just entering the market?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • what's a DRIP?

    • "I continue putting my money with HWP? What advice can you guys give a 20 something just entering the market?"

      Take heed!

      Dear Abby:
      I am a sailor in the United States Coast Guard.

      My parents live in the suburb of Philadelphia and one of my sisters, who lives in Bensonhurst, is married to a transvestite.

      My father and mother have recently been arrested for growing and selling
      marijuana and are currently dependent on my other two sisters, who are prostitutes in Jersey City.

      I have two brothers, one who is currently serving a non-parole life sentence
      in Attica for the murder of a teenage boy in
      1994. The other is currently being held in the Wellington Remand Center on
      charges of abusing his three children.

      I have recently become engaged to marry a former prostitute who lives in the
      Bronx and, indeed, is still a part-time "working girl" in a brothel;
      however, her time there is limited as she has recently been infected with an
      STD.

      We intend to marry as soon as possible and are currently looking into the
      possibility of opening our own brothel, with my fiancee utilizing her
      knowledge of the industry and working as the manager.

      I am hoping my two sisters would be interested in joining our team.
      Although I would prefer them not to prostitute themselves, at least it would
      get them off the streets and, hopefully, the heroin as well.

      My problem is this:

      I love my fiancee and look forward to bringing her into the family, and of
      course I want to be totally honest with her.

      Should I tell her about my cousin, who bought some HWP stock?

    • If HWP has started a DRIP, can you supply the phone number so I can sign up. Thanks.

    • If you are interested in building wealth over the long term,
      I think HWP is an excellent choice to Buy And Hold.

      You may have been a little unlucky with the price action after your purchase, but after 10 years you probably will hardly notice.

      It would be good to add to your HWP if the price takes a tumble, but you may want to search for other opportunities as well.

      • 1 Reply to schram
      • I agree, HP is an excellent core holding for the next 10-20 years.

        The same argument could probably be for Intel and Microsoft as
        well. Both of these companies are 800 pound gorillas in their
        respective businesses. This means they will continue to have
        pricing power in their marketplaces.........which means they will
        have high profits!

        Holding all three companies allow you to play all sides of the
        "Merced" effect. The microprocessor, computer, and opertating
        system. Sales of all three will be stimulated by Merced.

    • Having owned and watched HWP for 20 years, I would recommend
      that you keep a close eye on the Price/Earnings ratio on
      trailing earnings. Over the past 5 years, the average P/E
      on HWP has been around 17.5. Generally, when the P/E gets up
      into the low twenties (~23), it is time to take some money off
      the table. When the P/E is in the mid-teens (around 14-15),
      start buying. Of course, as long term interest rates fall you
      will need to adjust your mid-point up. With the current trailing
      earnings at 2.95 (last four quarters), and current price at about
      $67.....the P/E is at 22.7. This is closer to a sell than buy.
      If we get to $75, the P/E is at 25.4. This is at nosebleed
      altitude! This is a P/E higher than expected earnings growth.

      By the way, don't miss HWP CEO Lew Platt on Nightly Buisness
      Report on Monday, Dec 8.

      • 3 Replies to dale_albin
      • This is useful information. If I apply your numbers to the future, here's what I come up with. With this FY earnigs estimates at 3.45, an an optimal P/E of 23, then HWP should see 79.35 by FY year end. How much faith do place in earnings estimates? What
        effect will the Delta deal have on future earnings and when will this effect be realized? I know that HWP has 1.5 Bil. allocated for a stock by back program. Does anyone know what criteria HWP will use to begin the by back? How will this effect the price?

        Also, what network is Nigthly Business Report on.

      • I doubt the stock will rise that high without a split happening. Corporate policy is to keep the shares affordable. I held on after the last split and am glad to see the price rise again.

      • dale_albin

        Thanks for a wise note of caution. I need to keep reading messages like yours because I tend to get emotionally bullish, and sometimes that has hurt me financially. Keep up the watch.

    • Buy and hold, your won't be sorry. I started buying HWP when it split at an adjusted price of $38 in August of 1996, only 16 short months ago; look where it has come. If you buy now at $67, and hold until June of 1999, my guess is that it will be selling
      at a price of about $100, provided it doesn't split. HWP is probably one of the most conservative, safest high-tech investments their is. It has most the advantages of the hi-flyers like AMAT and TXN (relative fast appreciation of stock value), but also most the advantages of the big blue chips like GE and DD (not overly volatile). I am bullish on this company!!!

    • depending on how many shares you bought you might want to cash in your profits once HWP hits $75

    • if you read the previous messages (15-10) and do your research
      accordingly you will come up with the right answer to your concern! hwp will blow you away by year end and into the next year as well. new highs will be set! intel/hwp collaboration called "merced" will rock hwp stock price and split! buy now!

 
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