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Zumiez, Inc. Message Board

  • joltingjosephine joltingjosephine Nov 9, 2007 7:26 AM Flag

    Lots of lessons from ZUMZ

    Aparently a lot of amateur investors bid this stock up, so there are lessons that can make you guys better investors in the future. (This coming from one who could have made about 8000 bucks in a day if I had not covered my short...ooops!)

    1. This stock was a momentum play. Sure, sales were rising, but not nearly to the extent that the valuation of the stock implied. At 50 bucks, it was being propped by the greater fool theory, that is, "I know this stock is ridiculously expensive, but hey, someone else will pay a higher price tomorrow". This is never a good strategy to use.

    2. When a stock is grossly overvalued, it does not take much to make it fall quickly. Almost all stocks revert back to a FMV eventually. Almost always, they fall below that when panic selling sets in.

    3. Selling when others buy, and buying when others sell is the only way to make money in the stock market. I sold short ZUMZ znd otherv retailers when they were the rage, and bought precious metals when no one wanted them.

    4. Wall Street "analysts" are legalized criminals, only fools follow their advice. Sure, a stock may rise for a while because of "upgrades", but this is only to line their own pockets, usually hyping a stock that their own clients and funds have already been placed into.

    BTW, it is not too late to buy Silver and gold, they will probably rise anywhere from 20-50% in 2008.

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    • This guy is a total dipwad. Lets see Zumiez has 250 stores, Pac Sun has 1200. How many stores does Zumiez have east of the Mississippi River ? How many people live east of the Mississippi River? Save your lessons for your tedious nieces and nephews who can't stand you either, most likely.

      • 1 Reply to kimeisler55
      • In defense of the resident board short I think he made a great call. However, as the ZUMZ long who started the board and bought after the IPO I think that your point about Zumiez east of the Mississippi is the single most important reason why I am in ZUMZ.

        What is important to me is not where ZUMZ is, but all the places they have not yet opened a store yet...

        Plenty of room to grow here long-term.

        Mac out

    • wow a millionare, I never met one before, can I have your autograph.

      • 1 Reply to lorne.schussel
      • Where the heck do you live? Being a millionaire is no big deal nowadays, my friend, especially with the falling dollar. There are 6 in my family, including 2 nephews under 34 years old that made their money buying and selling real estate during the past few boom years.

        I certainly do not feel rich, I drive an $18,000 Honda , and live in a $225,000 home. I remain an active investor and money manager, along with my day job. Wish I could retire, but believe me, a million bucks is almost middle class nowadays.

    • But your assuming we know FMV and if it were that easy, why are you giving advice for free? E.P.S. estimates probably had a little more to do with it. Sorry teacher!

    • Very classy for people to brag about how smart they were now that the stock is 26, however you might want to check and see what happened after the last precipitious decline of Sept 2006 before you continue your self serving fat and happy rants. It gained 12 points in a month, so I would hold off before presiding over the Zumiez funeral. The problems are not company specific but tied to a general malaise in retail and lowered estimate you might want to know do not mean lower profits per share, they merely provide a target which this well-positioned company has a habit of exceeding both in general growth and internal growth. As far as analysts are concerned, i never noticed it had all that many even covering it who knew anything about it except for the woman from mcadams. So keep your speeches to yourself, revel in your short term victory, but the war is far from over.

      • 1 Reply to kimeisler55
      • Well, as to being a billiomaire, no, but I am a very knowledgeable investior, something badly neede on this board. (My portfolio is approaching 1M)

        As to being fat and happy, no, lean and mean would be more accurate. Funny though, I admit my mistakes, (read my post again), and certainly have gained in stock picking by making the same errors that late comer investors to ZUMZ made. My prediction now is that the stock will probably go to 22 bucks or so. It would be a mistake to presume that the selling is over. At that point, I may actually buy some, but I feel that the top in 2008 will be 34-35 dollars. Do not expect ZUMZ to go back into the 40's until probably 2009 at the earliest, and even then, only if some really unforeseen circumstance improve the credit situation of the american consumer.

    • Isn't hindsight great.

    • Man, I can't believe how smart you are!

      You must be a billionaire, knowing all that.

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