"Please do not consider yourself a geneous"
Not sure what a geneous is, but in any case, it has been many years since I used "gut feeling" to invest in stocks. In the case of ZUMZ, here is what my "gut" told me in 2008, and what it is telling me now, genius.LOL.
This company is valued as a "growth stock" at a P/E of over 40, and forward P/E over 30. It is not a growth stock, it is a niche retailer dependent on teenage fads and whims to survive. Competitors such as Pac-Sun, Aeropostale, Abercrombie, American Eagle and every little mom-and pop Skateboard and Surf shop are constantly looking at the market to ascertain what will succeed and fail with this very fickle consumer. I do not see them opening stores in India or China, so they are depending on Americans to fuel their growth. Good luck with that.
Hey, go ahead and buy ZUMZ, I have been around long enough to know that I can be wrong about any one equity. Thus far, I have been nothing bu right about this one.
I'm glad to hear you did well on ZUMZ...I have thought about shorting it also..I am currently in Bear ETF's...It's just more comforting to be bearish right now. Thanks for the tip on CMTP I will check it out.
I hear you, there are several stocks that I trade like that, after awhile you actually get a feel for the price action. Right now i am trading CMTP back and forth, although I have a core position for the last 4 years. I have also done options on AAPL and AMZN, made money up and down.
As to the guy asking if the market is smart to value ZUMZ at 12, all I can say is it was over 35 bucks around a year and a half to 2 years ago. Shorting it was one of the better trades I have made in the last couple of years.
Appreciate the advice well noted. For some reason I have been able to predict the action on this stock pretty accurately. The best thing I like about it is it behaves like a 3x ETF but isn't. I know there are better co. out there, I was dabbling in biotech pharmas(speaking of speculation!!)but only made money on periodic spikes so decided to quit...Zumz is the "Rebel Yell" of stocks. Thrilling going up and thrilling going down.
Well i never want to wish bad on anybody, but honestly, why would you want to buy a niche retailer selling at a ridiculous valuation, when there are great innovative companies out there, not to mention ones with better prospects selling at much lower P/E.
Andy, congratulations on your short term trade, if ZUMZ is a trading vehicle, I understand. The folks who are looking to buy and hold it, now thats a head scratcher.
"If you got laid off, probably you may not be very smart."
What an idiotic statement, the guy said he got LAID OFF, if you do not know what that means, keep your mouth shut. Maybe his company is in bankruptcy, or their business is slow.
Now, if you would have said that being long ZUMZ indicates that he is not too smart, that would be different.
Wish you luck, man are you gonna need it! Why a company with a P/E of over 40 in a finicky niche market dependent on broke consumers?
Oh well, have fun with this one, my put options are doing well on it.