Terry Burman's background is in jewelry. While his pedigree with Signet may be impressive....does that really translate into the ability to turnaround a closeout gift retailer?
The stock has soared, while the financial results haven't improved in the least yet. It's not that the stock is massively overvalued (it isn't), but there is definitely a sense that it's gotten ahead of itself.
They have several new impressive directors & several new impressive operations guys. And a large holder with board seats who has an impressive background in creating shareholder value.
Unless you just luck out & cover at a 50 cent to $1 gain, you are playing with fire here.
The upside is much more than the downsize even though you sold out at $4 and really want it to drop so you can be proven right for selling.
Got the newest TUES mailer today.
Bamboo everything at big discounts off supposed retail.
And on the back page, a nice looking fully lined leather coat for ladies for $29.99.
Original Retail $250.
And of course they are touting their first time ever for their event to start on a sunday. The 10th at 8 am-9 pm. (expanded hours I guess for the event)
I forget what the original deal about tuesdays was but its probably time to let it go.
People get paid on fridays. And more people are off on sunday. So sundays would seem the best day to start an "event".
I would argue that if they are going to have monthly events, then the first sunday of the month would be the best choice.
Their inventory is "clean" and profits will be much improved this year.
Shorting it seems asinine to me.
And they ought to sell Kathleen Mason punching bags in the stores. Im sure shareholders would buy them. She held this company back for a decade.
I'm not crying about when I sold out a year or so ago...because my portfolio was up 90% in 2012. So the other things I bought did just fine.
No results have come in yet. And, since the stock is currently at a FIVE YEAR TRADING HIGH, I think the move is overdone in the short term.
If it climbs to $9.75-10, I'll probably double up the short. If it climbs to $12 and change, I'll double up again.
This is too far too fast, and the volume, the last few days, has been drying up.
I fully expect it to retrace to $8.00-8.25. And I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see it at $7 again. If and when they get back to earning $1 in EPS, then we'll see a $10-15 stock. I'm not sure why we should be so close to the eventual target range for this stock, when they haven't shown one iota of an actual turnaround yet.
The move, again, is overdone...short term.
When you remain "wed" to stocks that have moved, instead of at least beginning to scale out, you reduce your long term returns significantly. (Letting the desire to avoid paying taxes control you is a fool's errand.)
At current prices, this stock is a modestly above average selection for the long term, unless, of course, they can get back to record profitability of $1.50+ in EPS. But that may be a tall order.
However, I do appreciate your suggestion of a Kathleen Mason punching bag for all the stores. (The customer base needs to realize who it is that made their TUES e
Very frankly speaking, it's about time they brought in new blood. As a mere observer now, this looks better and better. They're even trying out having the monthly sales begin on Sunday - imagine that. The vast majority of customers and potential customers had no clue WHY the sales began on "Tuesday Morning". They simply didn't "get" the connection and couldn't have cared less. Now. They must get after upper quality merchandise and vastly improve in store merchandising. I hear constantly, from my former customers, that the store is a mess and looks terrible. It didn't when I had it - but that's another story. Have you noticed the drop in picture frames and food? And jeez all that tacky clothing - from 2 year's ago styles. Oh please. Give that market to Burlington Coat Factory stores. Or better yet Ross Dress for Less.
tjMaxx/Home Goods. Now that's a situation worth watching. Home Goods in my locale is A+.
Tuesday Morning can't just be different - they've got to be better. And I mean REALLY better.
They've got to figure out how to customize merchandise to specific stores - come on now - that's not an unrealistic situation.