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Tuesday Morning Corporation Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Sep 22, 2013 3:06 PM Flag

    Q1 Sales announcement on 10/9. Earnings on 10/22.

    That's when they were last year. I expect a "day of reckoning" on 10/9.

    It's clear from Becker Drapkin's WILLINGNESS to sell to Primecap, that they are less enamored with Mr. Rouleau, and his chances, than Primecap is....and more importantly, that they are not interested in maintaining the position they once had, because they cannot anywhere nearly see the "whites of the eyes" of a turnaround here. In short, Becker Drapkin considered holding their entire position IMPRUDENT.

    and with that in mind, In my view, anyone buying this stock in here is being VERY IMPRUDENT.

    When i loaded up on ZLC, back a year and a half ago, when it was at $2.50, there was SOLID EVIDENCE OF A TURNAROUND (and a pending refinance!) and yet, the stock was DOWN, DOWN, DOWN.

    Here, there is NO evidence of a turnaround, and yet the atock is UP, UP, UP.

    This rally is SOLELY based upon faith in a CEO's name, and history at one company. That is patently reckless of the Street. Or Primecap. Or whoever.

    That having been said, I've always liked this company, and the concept, so, despite the fact that I am short, I hope that Rouleau IS able to return them to their past glory. (Even if he is, I'm still convinced the stock is going lower, before it goes higher.)

    we have gotten way ahead of our selves here. At best.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • I think you are minimizing the potential future value of TUES if they can fix it and grow it.

      A growth concept gets awarded a much higher multiple than a stagnant one.

      Lets see...3 years from now $1.25-1.50 in EPS, a 20 multiple reflecting the potential growth and we're looking at potentially $25-30.
      I dont think thats unreasonable. I hope they can earn more and sooner but Im being conservative.

      The question becomes what discount rate do you use to get current value ?

      15%= present value of $15.35-18.42. With short term rates being so low, a 15% discount rate is very reasonable.
      If I sold out of TUES, my money would be sitting in a savings account earning less than 1%.

      And, none of the above really accounts for the possible overvaluation that could occur after years of undervaluation.

      All that stuff said, its a whole new ballgame now with the stock at $15 and 3 million in volume friday. Its reasonable to expect BD may have sold more.

      And even if they did, it does not mean the company is going down. It means they made many times their money, faster than they probably expected.

      Rational prudence tells them to lighten up.

      Ive sold over 82% of my TUES from my peak. So what if BD sold 25-40% or whatever it ends up being, if they did indeed sell more firday.

      This situation is just very interesting. And remember, Becker Drapkin has been known to get companies sold. They got TUTR sold within a year of getting involved and ditto for HOTT.

      I cant predict who might want to buy TUES but I glanced at Yahoos competitors and saw that BBBY has a marketcap of $16+ billion. Makes TUESs $657 million seem pretty darn cheap by comparison.

 
TUES
19.41+0.52(+2.75%)Sep 16 4:00 PMEDT

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