Street estimates are 35 cents for this FY, and 56 cents for next.
So we're selling at nearly 30x the June 2015 fiscal year earnings estimate?? With no evidence of a turnaround yet? They need to do at least DOUBLE these Street estimates, for the stock to have any chance of trading at the current levels.
TUES, at $15.50 is selling at 40x this years estimated eps of $0.35. If I could get my ROST stock to that PE I would be ecstatic and ROST has a track record of amazing consistency and it sells for 19 PE which is very high, the highest it has sold was at a 20.5 PE. Some people are going to be very, very disappointed when reality hits TUES.
I went to a Tuesday Morning store yesterday and I talked briefly to the store manager. (I did make a small purchase.) He's a relatively young guy - late twenties or early thirties. He very ambitious but very realistic. He told me that TUES has to have a fairly good Christmas this year or they may not be around much longer. He did indicate that he is getting much more support from the district office and that they are paying close attention to details such as burnt out lights and floors. He said that floor service will now be contracted out and done on a scheduled basis. He also got a 'now open' sign recently to let folks passing by that they're open for business. It sounds like a solid start but I worry that it may be too little, too late. For the sake of my TUES manager friend, I hope TUES surprises everyone. ☺☺☺
60% earnings growth, a 30 multiple isnt bad. .5 PEG ratio.
And I look for even bigger growth in the following 2 years. Say $1.20 and $1.75.
20x $1.75=$35.00. Thats a nice round target and the stocks been there before.
But 10/9 will be D-Day. Are you going to throw in the towel if it doesnt drop to $10 ?
How can you justify the fact that the stock had a 3 million share day, and a week since them and BD hasnt sold more ?
Well, you can "look for even bigger growth in the following 2 years"....but you are pretty much grabbing your $1.20 and $1.75 EPS figures out of a hat.
The difference between buying this at $15, and buying ZLC at $2.50, 1 1/2 years ago, is stark and dramatic. Zale had EVIDENCED multiple quarters of a turnaround, and the stock was down, because of one weaker quarter. This company has evidenced NO turnaround yet, and yet the stock has basically quadrupled. The risk is, therefore, THAT MUCH MORE DRAMATIC....and almost exclusively based on faith in Michael Rouleau. Which I just find interesting....because they didn't care so much when he was merely on the board of directors (and make no mistake, you can give a lot of guidance on property strategy, when you're on the board)....but suddenly, the Street is falling all over itself, now that he is the actual CEO....when, in reality, they couldn't find anyone else better to run the thing, apparently.
I can't wait to see the sales and earnings figures for the Sept. quarter. I can't imagine that such results could drive the stock higher. That having been said, someone with very deep pockets has been wanting to get in here very badly, and they continue to do as such.
Right now, the rally in this stock has been, exclusively, a story of FAITH. But, concomitant with faith, there is the concept of RISK. I prefer turnarounds that have already shown that they have started. We don't have that here. At all.
I'm evaluating the situation ongoingly. Obviously, there's a lot of buying interest, in the short term. But if the Dow falls out of bed in October, and the sales and earnings guidance is mediocre, or worse, this thing could go down hard.
And people may eventually tire of this "new cash register" as "new business model" nonsense. [lol]