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Tuesday Morning Corporation Message Board

  • smaycs4 smaycs4 Nov 7, 2013 5:19 PM Flag

    New 13d/a Becker Drapkin unloaded a lot more in recent dayss

    Im unclear on exactly how much they have left. Perhaps 4.8% ? 13d's are way too hard to decipher when it comes to exact remaining ownership.

    There is no sugarcoating it, this is not good. My remaining position is small but I will likely look to dispose of it on strength, if any, by year end. But even if I sell at $8, I made a lot of money.

    That said, I would be surprised to see the shares fall to $8 anytime soon and I still think their x-mas quarter will show evidence of what this brand is capable of going forward.

    So I wouldn't doubt a possible $15-16 possible value next year.

    BD Partners V 104,917 $ 13.2331 (1) Open Market Transaction
    Becker Drapkin QP 179,126 $ 13.2331 (1) Open Market Transaction
    Becker Drapkin, L.P. 24,861 $ 13.2331 (1) Open Market Transaction
    BD Management 187,151 $ 13.2331 (1) Open Market Transaction
    BD Partners V 54,060 $ 12.8066 (1) Open Market Transaction
    Becker Drapkin QP 92,298 $ 12.8066 (1) Open Market Transaction
    Becker Drapkin, L.P. 12,810 $ 12.8066 (1) Open Market Transaction
    BD Management 96,432 $ 12.8066 (1) Open Market Transaction
    BD Partners V 14,897 $ 12.5911 (1) Open Market Transaction
    Becker Drapkin QP 25,433 $ 12.5911 (1) Open Market Transaction
    Becker Drapkin, L.P. 3,530 $ 12.5911 (1) Open Market Transaction
    BD Management 26,573 $ 12.5911 (1) Open Market Transaction

    (1) Excluding commissions of $0.04 per share.

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    • To me what they're doing makes sense from an activist's perspective. If you want to make changes, particularly at the CEO level you have to garner enough leverage through share acquisition, which they did. The catalysts for change are now in place (i.e. the new CEO and company) it's an inarguable point to say there aren't significant changes to the business model being made if you listen to the last two quarterlys. At this point why keep so much cash tied up especially if you're already ahead on the deal. You don't know how much money Becker Drapkin even had to begin with. How do you know the initial 9.7% didn't wipe them out? Besides investors like this aren't focused on the horizon like regular people like us clinching our fists and praying for a 7% pop so we can sell on earnings. They're focused on the longer term direction. Who cares if the stock sinks to $5? If it does I'm doubling my position. The changes they've initiated through the new leadership will ensure the company sees steady long lasting profitability in years to come. To me if I were an activist I'd do the same thing these guys have done. It just makes sense to me. I personally don't see the doom and gloom. I guarantee the first quarter these guys see expanding gross margins on steady same store sales increases (which they've already done) this stock will explode. The margin expansion (as the CFO stated) will likely begin to kick in by this time next year conservatively which I agree with based on what I see. The analysts are all but coming out and spoon feeding that answer during conference calls anyway. I'm curious to see what the turn around efforts as it relates to their DC look like. To me that's going to biggest near term margin catalyst.

      All TUES needs to do is keep expanding same store sales regardless of the decrease ticket sales, increase throughput (which they've done quite well for being so early) and widen up their margins and you'll see $30 - $40/share plus a div

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • beetleruss Nov 8, 2013 8:20 AM Flag

      But they've got new cash registers! ☺☺☺

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