Spent 2+ hours, going thoroughly through the entire store. I don't suggest that there is anything scientific about my analysis....especially since i haven't been in one of their stores for probably several years prior. I did spend $375 (yes, even though i'm short the stock!), including $200 on a 7x9 foot carpet.
I don't have very many observations, except to say that the store was well stocked, and well organized. They told me that they sweep like 1/3 of the aisles, on a rolling basis, every day.....but it seems clear that they never WASH the floor, which was quite dingy, dirty, and unsightly in spots. I'm not making a big deal out of that, nor the fact that the store only had a handful of customers, at any time while i was there.
I do question the ability of Rouleau and company to dramatically transform the business model, when certain key departments, likde bedding and linens, kitchen/dining, luggage, etc., seem pretty "fixed" in their nature.
I can't say i was particularly compelled by ANY of the "bargains" i saw, which is probably the biggest problem i see for them....with the exception of one $10 decorative xmas glass piece that was a well priced impulse item. But nothing else reallly "screamed" at me. (I bought the things i did because i don't like to shop, and since this was a systematic shopping trip, i figured i would "reward" myself for the effort involved.
I guess i was looking for the possibility, in making my trip to the store, that i would feel the "irresistible" need to cover my short. I was certainly open to that possibility......but that is not a feeling i felt. I wish i would have seen what the "old" stores looked like 6, and 12, and 18 months ago, so i would have a basis for comparison, but i do not.
Have any of you TUES old timers out there noticed any dramatic differences between this xmas and last xmas, in terms of the assortments, merchandising, breadth, pricing, etc.? Are you filling up your baskets more/less?
It cant take more than 5-7 minutes to do the entire store. Can it ?
Dirty, not dusty floors is my biggest problem with the local store. Manager said they have a machine but over the years it hasn't looked like they use it enough even though he said they give them extra hours to do it once a month I think he said.
Nothing in a TUES has ever prompted me to buy anything but a 50 year old male tightwad is not their target customer.
I think you underestimate what a fresh look & new mgmt. can & will do for them.
Its not unreasonable to bet the jockey given his past huge win.
But, I don't doubt it could fall back to $10 if x-mas disappoints. And I don't know exactly what the market expects because none of the estimates justify a $15 stock price so its going to be hard to "miss".
I expect the comments in the PR and the call about going forward will mean as much or more as the actual EPS & Sales figures this quarter.
Not that they can show negative comps. If they do, your $8 target might happen. I don't think there is even a 10% chance they show negative comps.
When you compare TUES to BBBY, its obvious which one has more upside.
I was in the Tuesday Morning in Hanover, N.J. last week. The store had 3 customers including myself shopping. There was one sales clerk in the store and the manager was in back. Upon my visual analysis, I thought the selves were well stocked, but the inventory looked stale. The only tempting purchase for me was a piece of luggage substantially discounted. When you analyze Inventory Turnover for TUES, it takes them as of 3rd Qtr. 791 days to turnover inventory. (That is Number, Check Yourself) I know management has discussed a better inventory system, but I don't think the problem is solvable. They can't compete with a TJX Companies, which offers a grander selection of merchandise at better price points. After my Tuesday Morning visit, I drove down to Home Goods and the place was packed house. I think Sell Side Analysts and management are blowing smoke with regards to a turnaround. The company should turn a profit for holiday season, but considering they can't produce any sort of consistent Free Cash Flow, this thing is probably worth slightly more then its Assets less Liabilities.
Had an identical experience to yours last month.....down to the rugs. We need a few and their selection looked very good. I'll be back with my wife to get the ones she likes. I'd be curious to know if they're going for that second-hand store look. I don't know...maybe flea market-type shoppers are more at home in that kind of setting and only get a feeling that they've scored a bargain if the surroundings are inexpensively maintained. I know I feel the opposite in stores that are expensively appointed--I know that ultimately the cost of that overhead is going into the price I pay.