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Tuesday Morning Corporation Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Dec 25, 2013 8:35 PM Flag

    Becker Drapkin is below 5% now.

    Keep in mind that they sold their last chunk at $12.59-13.23 in early November. The stock is now trading for $2-3 higher than that range.

    I am not clear, with their indicating in their filing that their reporting obligations have now terminated, whether or not they were required to file additional reports, if they had SOLD OUT TOTALLY. Is it possible that they have since totally unloaded their position in TUES??

    In any case, I feel more secure shorting at prices considerably HIGHER than B-D was last reported as selling at. (It is also possible that their window for selling more is closed now, since they are insiders, and they want to sell more, but have been precluded.)

    I fully expect this stock to drop to $10-11, when sales guidance is released, next month. Even in a best case scenario, i see the stock staying "stuck" in the current $14-16 range.

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • Actually, B-D sold more shares in late November, reported on Form 4's. They are down to under 4% ownership, which i consider very damning. I imagine the window for any further insider selling locked up, right after Thanksgiving, which, not so coincidentally, the day of their last sale was 11/29.....the day after Thanksgiving. (They probably found out how Thanksgiving sales were, over the weekend after the holiday, had inside info at that point, so were not allowed to sell any more stock, from that point onwards.)

      I fully expect the 17% owner to be dumping this stock, after a poor Christmas sales report. This thing is going to be a disaster, for the longs. Most significantly, the company has said it is going for lower initial markups, in order to boost turnover....but i didn't see any particularly compelling bargains in my visit. Consequently, I fully expect the net effect to be LOWER overall margins, lower profits, and LOWER same store sales. Rouleau is going to rue the day he took on this job. This is a $10, or even an $8, stock. Becker Drapkin knows more than ANYONE here, about the underlying value, and they have reduced their overall position by roughly 60%, from their peak.

      Sentiment: Sell

      • 1 Reply to longtimefollower
      • I reported their sale to under 4% weeks ago. But their stake is STILL in the $25 million range.

        Im pretty sure however that he is still a director and he would still have to file form 4s going forward.

        Someone posted that they could be removed from the board when their stake went below 4% but I haven't seen any evidence that he has been. Even if he were to step down, I think his reporting requirements would continue for 6 months after.

        Ive reduced my postion by well over 60% so I don't begrudge them from taking some profits.

        Primecap is not going to dump after 1 quarter. They buy early and are willing to wait.

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