I guess the question is will we retest the Nov 30 closing low of $4.26 and the intraday of $4.18. That could be a great trading price. Hold until just over $5.00 for a 20% profit. Sell at $6.00 for a 40% profit.
I belive we could see a new low in 2-3 weeks. I also believe they will drive the price back up around 7 at some point. Then back down again. It is if this stock is taking it's last gasp occasionally as it slowly dies. According to the trend of the past 5 years it has about a year to one and half years before the steam belches one last time before this ship sinks for good.
The most important factor is that the controlling local powers maintain control in a worst case scenario. In a worst case scenario the bondholders own the company. Which leads to the critical question- recall the $300 mil 'private placement' yielding a whopping 12%, proceeds which were used to pay off lower rate debt that was maturing.
Who were these 'private investors'? A good hunch is that they include the 'controlling local powers'. Which in a worst case scenario would mean the 'controlling local powers' would still control the much of the company by owning $300 mil of the debt.
Whomever in actuality owns the $300 mil in debt is collecting a fat 12% for I believe is for 5 years.
Pure speculation, but plausible. Newspapers and local TV are not good money makers due to the internet, but still have a powerful local influence. That 'control' is more valuable than money.